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Thursday, February 28, 2019

View in the rearview mirror



Got to be true, there was a lot I liked about last year's Mariners.  As much as I am intrigued and excited about all these new players Dipoto has brought to Seattle, I miss some of the old guys.

So I did a quick check-up on some.  Nelson hasn't done much of anything for the Twins... two runs, no at bats, limited playing time, must have walked twice.  Segura?  Tearing the hide off the ball for Philly... hardly a big surprise... batting low .600s.  Zunino one home run for Tampa, looks like a usual slow start for Mike.  Cano hitting well for the Mets.

The two I cared most about haven't played much or shown much.  Ben Gamel 1 for 7 for the Brewers.    Heredia 1 for 5 for Tampa.  Sugar... lots of work, 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA... 11Ks in 10 innings for the Mets.  Paxton has two scoreless innings for the Yankees... oh how I dread seeing him later in the season.  Sure hope Sheffield, Swanson and T-W make up for the loss of Pax.

Bad news on Taylor Motter.  In December he left his Dominican Winter League team to return to US for "facial surgery."  No idea what that is about.  He's not in Spring training with his last team, the Twins.  His last Twitter post has a picture with a new haircut, but no mention where he is or what he's doing.  I'll keep checking.

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Shelf life of mortal ballplayers


I've never been an Ichiro fan, but from his arrival in Seattle I've admired his discipline, focus and hard work.  His ability to turn any at bat or any pitch into a basehit is extraordinary.  I saw him get a hit off a pitch that bounced in front of the home plate once.

But as much as we know he resists it, the time all ballplayers dread, may have arrived for Ichiro.  For all his clever and creative technique he has not looked good at all this spring. He's batting .125 (1 for 8) and 0 for 7.  His one hit, a bloop single to right, was worrisome in its own right.  He swung hard, I expected a line drive, but it was a soft humpback.

I wish him success on the trip to Japan.  I also believe it may be the perfect place to bid baseball sayonara.

.....

Note: the Bellarmine Prep Lions defeated Hazen 57-33 in the first round of the Washington State 4A high school Women's Basketball Championship.  They face perennial Spokane powerhouse, Central Valley, tomorrow afternoon.

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

More springtime dreaming



Improbable end to today's game.  Down 4 to 1 to the Rangers with two out in the bottom ninth, first Jake Fraley, then Chris Mariscal, both non-roster players, jack homers to tie the game.  And there may be a lesson there.

As the game wrapped up I was thinking about what I wanted to write.  I planned to expand on something GM Jerry Dipoto said in a very informative interview with Brock and Salk on their 710-radio morning show.  He told them that his strategy to "reimagine," as opposed to rebuild, the Mariners grew partly out of an exercise he conducted with 16 of his front-office staff towards the end of the season.

He handed out papers numbered 1 through 25 and asked them to fill in the blanks with the names of players they wanted to see on the 2019 roster.  He said 16 of 16 wanted some kind of rebuild and in reviewing those nominations he came to his vision of the team we see on the field today.  Built, he said, on the foundation of Mitch Haniger and Marco Gonzalez.

These first few games have been a challenge to make sense of who all these reimagined players are, but with each at bat I am struck by their resemblence to Haniger's controlled but aggressive batting style and Marco's cool but aggressve way of pitching.  Maybe Dipoto's logic holds up.  I don't know how talented these kids are, but like Mariscal and Fraley (and their model in Haniger) they're not afraid to go for the hit.  Even down by three with one out left.

Game was called after 9 as a tie.

Monday, February 25, 2019

Unwrapping the package



We know how the story is supposed to end.  In October 2020, maybe 2021, we'll watch Yusei Kikuchi step to the mound to start the Mariner's first ever World Series game.  That's how the Kikuchi narrative, which began today with his first start in spring training, is supposed to end... at least in our dreams.  And dreams are what spring training is all about anyway, isn't it?

Nothing happened in Peoria today to, in any way, dash those hopes.  Not yet.  He pitched very well, hit 95, moved the ball around, dealt with a jam, the result of of poor fielding.  He gave up two runs, neither of them earned, and looked like a major league pitcher.  I loved that fastball (slider?) a little up and inside.

A promising preview of things to come.

Along with that good news, it was exciting to see Encarnacion rip a line-drive double off the left field fence, soon followed by a sky-high home run from Domingo Santana.   Even more satisfying was the home run crushed by a healthy (finally!) Kyle Lewis.

Sunday, February 24, 2019

More early reactions


Most of the coverage of yesterday's loss to the Padres focused, as I did, on Felix Hernandez' first pitching performance.  Reviews were mildly positive to uneasily inconclusive, not unlike his results in the first and second innings.  Felix' good innings raise hopes that he's coming back; his bad ones quickly dash them.

I had missed something.  He pitched out of a stretch the whole time, abandoning his wind-up.  He told reporters afterwards that this approach "felt good," as though he was going "straight to the plate."  Again, it's too early to conclude anything, especially when a pitcher is using spring training to try out something different.

One play in particular haunts me, so I went to the archives to review it: Narvaez' passed ball.  Later Felix took the blame.  There was a lot of movement on the change-up, but Narvaez's glove was there. He was over the center of the plate and slid his arm to his left, but he just didn't turn the mitt, so the ball struck the bottom of a facedown glove and shot away.  A catchable ball if Narvaez adjusts... sloppy play, a legit passed ball.  These are the kinds of mistakes he makes the coaches are trying to correct, this was a catching error to make one wonder if Narvaez is learning.

......

Bellarmine lost, they couldn't overcome Lewis and Clark's ten three-pointers, but they still qualify for the state 4A tournament, playing Hazen (Renton) Wednesday afternoon in the Tacoma Dome.  Go Lions! Go Larkin!

Saturday, February 23, 2019

The Felix saga continues


Let's start by acknowledging that it is neither smart nor fair to draw conclusions from a pitcher's first start in Spring Training.  Granted.  However, the wait to see the 2019 version of Felix Hernandez has been one of considerable anticipation and anxiety.  Will he bounce back?  Can he bounce back?

My initial reaction?  It didn't go well.  In fact, watching him pitch on the ROOT broadcast, it looked a lot like last year.  As I noted above, it's too early to draw a conclusion; this is just a reaction.  But it's not a good one.

He does look trimmer, especially through the hips and his first inning looked good.  Mike Blowers said his fastball hit, 90-92.  His breaking ball looked sharp as did his change-up.  He had an Shed Long error behind him, but finished the first inning fine.

He didn't, however,get out of the second.  He was slated to throw 35 pitches, but he ended up with 47, got one out and gave up 4 runs.  It is true, he had some adversity.  An ump called a questionable hit fair down the line, Narvaez gave up a passed ball, a probable inning-ending double-play caromed off of the King's glove.  

All too reminiscent of last season.  He had some problems, then started to look shaky, threw a lot of pitches, seemed to start missing the zone.  He got that bewildered look on his face you see sometimes.  He didn't look sharp anymore.  He didn't look like the pitcher from the inning before.  Next thing you know four runs have scored and he's out of there.  Just not a confidence building start for him or for the fans.

........

Personal note: my grand-daughter Larkin Daly and her team-mates from the Bellarmine Prep Lions are in Spokane just about to tip off in the regional 4A basketball play-offs against Lewis and Clark HS.  She's an off-the-bench guard and a tough defender on an excellent 20-4 team.  Wish them luck.  Whatever happens today they have already qualified for the state championship tournament next week, so they're playing for a better seed.

Friday, February 22, 2019

M's win 8 to 1



Love spring training, but hate the games.  After the first couple of innings it's just a revolving platter of unknown players.  And with so many new ones on this year's team, it is nearly impossible to make sense of who is who.  On top of that, it's hard to draw conclusions from just a couple of at bats with pitchers who are operating under conditions unlike an actual game.

Couple of impressions, nonetheless:

The Mariners won, handily, starting off fast and aggressively like they did in yesterday’s contest.

Pitching held the A's scoreless through the first eight innings.

Nice way for Haniger to start: a homer on his first at bat.

Seager hit the ball hard and even looped one to the opposite field.

Tim Lopes showed something, getting attention going three for three.

Mike Leake is a gem, made of the same stuff as Jamie Moyer.  Consistent, steady, uses the whole plate, thinking the whole time.  Not pretty, but solid, dependable.

So one win in the books, go M's.

Thursday, February 21, 2019

The conviction of Dipoto's courage



Awwwwww.  It only lasted an inning and a half, but hearing Mariner's baseball on the radio this afternoon was just what my winter-soul needed.  With a bunch of new players... the first four batters in the line-up all played in other organizations last year... they scored five runs in their two innings.  Marco put them down one-two-three.

For stat-heads, like me, if they can keep that up it figures they would average 22.5 runs a game and goose-egg the other teams.  No?

.......

I'm hoping the rumors that the M's are looking to acquire free agent catcher, Martin Maldonado are wrong.  It sounds like a hedge bet on Dipoto's part.  Having discarded an excellent catcher, but inconsistent hitter, in Mike Zunino, to get so-so defensive backstop but good hitter, Omar Narvarez and then bring in a feeble-hitting good glove like Maldonado sure looks like second-guessing.

I'm disposed to like Dipoto.  I like his upbeat personality and his honesty about his moves, but I'm not  ready to consider him a great GM until he gets the Ms in the play-offs.  And my greatest concern is he may lack the resolve to stick with his decisions.

My misgivings started at the trade deadline last season.  Instead of acquiring or renting players to supplement his two-year strategy of using the core of Gordon, Segura, Cano and Cruz to win it all, nothing happened... Cano got suspended, the team's offense cooled, everyone got tired.  Without the boost of fresh blood, they played mediocre baseball the rest of the season and saw the A's shoot past them for a play-off berth.

Once the team fell out of contention, Dipoto announced a new strategy for this season, a "step back," which quickly turned into a big-time rebuild that discarded the most of core along with pitching aces, Paxton and Diaz.

So now, why would Dipoto try to get back a Zunino when you could have kept him in the first place?  Is the Narvarez experiment to improve his defensive skills not working?  Is this a money thing?  I don't know.  Zunino made $2.95M last year, looks like Narvaez earned $600K.  Maldonado made more than Zunino last year.  If they get Maldonado, the money could just be a push.

I only know a little about baseball, but I know a lot about leadership.  I've spent 50 researching, teaching and training leadership.  Great leaders are decisive.  Flexible for sure, but careful to see their decisions all the way through.  I hope Dipoto has the courage of his convictions, but I worry he starts to second guess himself before committing fully on his strategies.

........

Astronomical note:  It's worth waking a little early the next couple of mornings.  Low on the SE horizon you can watch Jupiter rise, followed about an hour later by Venus and Saturn coming up almost side-by-side.  A good omen for the Mariner's season, I think.

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Stiff toes Seager's problem?



I'm trying to avoid making this blog a pass-through to other reporters' good stories, but in my early morning news round-up, I came across one that says a lot about Kyle Seager, the Ms and modern baseball.

It's from one of my favorites, Shannon Drayer of sports.mynorthwest.com and KIRO-710 radio.  She's one of the best.  And she stays close to the team so her stories, like this one, have a kind of compelling, insider's feel.  

She reports today that Seager's broken toe, which presumably contributed to his significantly diminished performance at the plate last year, did not come from a foul tip off his foot.  It was, instead, actually the result of a stiffness in his joints that caused the toe to snap.  Drayer goes on to say that a combination of  hard work "an anti-inflammatory diet, stretching and the correct exercise," and special coaching helped Seager get ready to bounce back this sesson.  

Neither Seager or Drayer says this, but it is reasonable to assume Seager's physical joint tightness has its psychological equivalence in his approach at bat.  Seager has always brought an impressive intensity to the plate and it has become uncomfortably harder to watch him struggle to fight through, with limited success, the extreme defensive shifts thrown up by other teams.  Makes you wonder how much of the "tightness" has been in his head.

This is modern baseball if not at its best, certainly most modern.  The Mariners have shown a willingness to deploy innovative resources, often drawn from professionals outside of baseball, to help their players on and off the field.

I can't wait to see the new, more flexible, Kyle Seager hit.  First game tomorrow! 


Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Kumbya or kumgoodbye?



9:45 a.m. BREAKING NEWS!  Manny Machado signs with the Padres, 10 years, $300M.  The logjam is over.  Expect a lot of moves in the next few days.

Did the player's worst case scenario materialize?  Kind of.  Dollars and years were not affected, but player's choice of teams was. I'm not sure Machado really wanted to end up with a non-contender.  True San Diego has a lot of youth and are rebuilding, but Manny's going to be watching his former team, the Dodgers, in the next few play-offs.

...........

With everyone in camp, a lot of new faces, the time is right to think about a particularly elusive concept in sports: team culture and chemistry.  Those are just a catchy terms to describe morale, the level of harmony and happiness experienced among people working together.

Although much is made of good morale contributing to high performance, there are no data showing that people are necesarily happier with each other in successful organizations, baseball teams included.  Indeed, a chicken-egg, cause and effect, problem arises when the issue of morale and performance are considered: could be that winning causes happiness, more than happiness produces winning.

In fact, the chemistry logic flies in the face of some dearly held conceptions about stoic professional athletes who are presumed to effectively play through physical pain or emotional hardship.

This issue becomes relevant to the Mariners, because, since arriving as manager three years ago, Scott Servais has made it a priority to create and maintain a positive clubhouse culture.  Everything from a pool table in the locker-room to special team meetings to Joe Maddon-like costumed roadtrips, Servais has nurtured player relations.  So much so, that GM, Jerry Dipoto, is reported to have said last July, when the Ms were 24 games over .500, that this team had "the best environment" he'd ever seen in a major league clubhouse.

Yes, that's the same team that went 33 and 41 for the rest of the season, had a clubhouse brawl between Jean Segura and Dee Gordon and finished 8 games out of the play-offs.  Which fell apart first, the good play or the good feelings?

Whatever.  Servais gets a do-over.  Segura, who was believed to rub team-mates the wrong way is gone and the clubhouse is full of new, young players presumably ready to buy in to another year of SoDo mojo.

Monday, February 18, 2019

Encarnacion?



I must be missing something.  If I followed it correctly, last December 13 the Mariners acquired Edwin Encarnacion, power-hitting DH/infielder from Cleveland.  Two weeks later they let Nelson Cruz slip away as a free agent singing to Minnesota.  Compared side by side, from physique to OPS, from homers to contract status, these are the same guys, except Cruz is three years older and an established well regarded leader by fans and in the clubhouse.  Both are in their mid-to-late thirties, neither is a long-term prospect.

Why did they let Cruz go?  Why from the moment they acquired him have they lured Encarnacion as trade bait?  Why hasn't a trade come off?

The answer to the final question may be linked to the impasse in signing free agents I discussed yesterday.  Until Machado and Harper sign everything else will hold tight.  There could still be a lot of roster tuning as spring training unfolds.

And, if they do trade EE, who fills the considerable power hole left by the loss of Cruz and Encarnacion?  Vogelbach?  He better show he can hit his weight first.


Sunday, February 17, 2019

I really don't want to write about this



When I launched this baseball blog, I hoped, unsuccessfully it turns out, that Manny Machado or Bryce Harper would sign contracts before I had to write about the impasse in free agency.  Well, they didn't sign and I can't put off commenting about it any longer.

My reluctance to avoid the topic of the free agent market in baseball stems from three sources: the Mariner's are not in the auction for super players like Harper and Machado, you can't avoid explaining the boring intricacies of the system and, finally, as impactful as these negotiations to sign players may be, they highlight the least pleasant aspects of the least pleasant side of baseball - the Business.

And in the end, whether you are a player, agent or owner, any discussion of free agency unveils the unmistakable, but undeniable truth, that underneath it all, this game we love for its expansive green fields and sultry summer nights is all about... money.  You don't have to be Karl Marx to figure that out.  One glance at your wallet slowly emptying for a $20 "cheap seat," a $12 beer and $8 hot dog teaches even the least economically-interested fan that this game has more to do with money than anything else, including winning.

Of course, where money is involved greed will always be found.  And in the case of free agency, every one of the three involved parties, owners, agents and players alike, can legitimately accuse the other two of greed while, at the same time, neglecting to own up to their own.

Skipping the intricacies, it comes down to this.  Every player wants the largest and longest-term contract they can get... the sooner the better.  Every owner wants to tie up that player for the longest time at the lowest cost.  The agents just care about the size of the contract.

Under the current collective bargaining agreement, signings of free agents have tended to come later and later until, today, the most sought after players are still unsigned with spring training underway.  Whether by intent, coincidence, caution, good practice or collusion, the owners by refusing to budge, have held up signings to the point where players/agents have to cave if they are going to get any contract.

This tactic has worked to the owners' advantage because the teams, either by collusive agreement or common market sense, have created an auction where some teams declare from the start that they are not interested or cannot afford a free agent, leaving a small and less competitive pool of bidders.  Worse, among those not bidding are teams, like the Mariners, who in the process of rebuilding are unlikely to spend their money and deplete their options for a single, high cost superstar.  At its absolute worst, Max Scherzer suggested to Tom Boswell some of those teams starting over this season are actually "tanking."

That is the logjam the game is stuck in right now.  The four biggest ticket free agents, Machado, Harper and pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbel, are left unsigned and, behind them, are dozens of other less stellar, but eminently good to high quality ballplayers.  And with each day, the market value of those players drops as the list of interested and elgible teams declines.

I know, I know.  The catchphrase for many is, who cares when millionaires get in a fight with billionaires?  But there's a lot at stake here, fans included.  Earlier I suggested the issue of free agency makes no difference to the M's, this season at least.  In a rebuilding year they are not bidders in the Harper et. al. sweepstakes, but that's not completely accurate.  There are a lot of less spectacular, but good ballplayers in their own rights, who could fill out a less than complete Mariner's roster (or starting line-up, for that matter).  Adam Jones pique anyone's interest?

There were good reasons why I didn't write about this, none of the things I've discussed speak well to MLB or the people most closely involved with it.

Saturday, February 16, 2019

Spring frustrations already?



So we wait for months to see our new centerfielder, Mallex Smith, who the M's acquired from Tampa.  And after inches of press and lots of talk-show time, even a video of him apartment-hunting in his new home town, he has a sore shoulder... won't be able to throw for a couple of weeks.  "We'll kind of slow-play him," manager Scott Servais is quoted as saying.  He'll miss fielding drills.

There are few things more discouraging than spring training injuries.  It's like opening a Christmas present and learning that UPS is late delivering it.  All you get is a picture of that George Foreman grill or your Hickory Farms Hearty Beef gift box.  Way to start the season, with a no-armed centerfielder.  Better warm up Dee Gordon.

......

The whole team has reported, first full work-out today, unless Mallex Smith gets hurt in the locker room.  Just to remind us of how many new players are in camp, Lookout Landing, a good M's blog, (https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/2/15/18226196/sporcle-friday-mariners-40-man-roster) offered a link to a fun quiz at a site called Sporcle.  They give you 4 minutes to match the names of the Mariner's 40 roster players with their pictures.

My score?  5.  It should have been 7.  I do know what Haniger and Healy look like, but their pictures don't resemble them at all.  Still, lots of strange faces.

A sore shoulder.  Already?

Friday, February 15, 2019

Position players report



The gang's all here!  The position players check in today, workouts for the whole team tomorrow. Soon games will be underway.  Baseball is back and eight months of drama, excitement and fun are just ahead.

But some essential, but boring, things first.  I so enjoy using statistics to analyze the world around me that students pinned a nickname on me years ago... Dr. Data.  And it stuck and I liked it, because I enjoy trying to understand reality by representing it in different ways, numbers, images, narratives, metaphors, models.  So it follows I have been intrigued by baseball stats since my first reading of Bill James in the mid-1980s (I was introduced to him by my son, Matt, who was in his teens and used James' stats to clobber me in game after game of Strato-Matic).

Long before my fandom, part of following baseball was keeping track of the stats and at an early age, like all of us, I relied on the time-honored numbers of batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage and ERA.  After James and other pioneering "sabrematricians," the game has been flooded with what are, today, called "analytics."  And Michael Lewis popularized their use with his profile of A's general manager Billy Beane in Moneyball.  So today we have BABIP and PECOTA and WAR and all manner of trying to understand what happens after a pitch is thrown.

The latest trend is the use of devices designed to breakdown physical performance for closer analysis.  Within a couple of years the the video camera and speed gun have been supplemented by instruments, handheld devices, to register and calculate all manner of data on every single pitch or swing.

One of them, RAPSODO, tracks twelve different features of each pitch: things like spin rate and release angle and a lot of other more obscure details.  Similar information is collected for hitting.  I've never pitched so I have no idea how useful or valid any of these data might be, but it's clear some players and coaches pay attention and used to make adjustments to improve performance.  Judging by the sight of them at the M's bullpen sessions, we must be, too.

This practice, I would argue, represents the best application of statistics: to make comparisons over time or between situations (good versus bad) to pitch or hit better in the future.

If you doubt the sensibility or efficacy of that approach look at Kyle Seager.  The use of analytics to shift the position of infielders player by player (and sometimes pitch by pitch) had a crippling effect on Seager.  In fairness he had a broken toe for much of last season, but it was frustrating to watch Kyle hit last year.

Against the radical shifts analytics commanded, he'd either futilely try to pull the ball where there
were no longer openings or weakly attack the opposite field.  In 2016, before he started seeing radical shifting, Seager hit a career high .278 with 30 home runs.  In '17 and '18, respectively, his average fell to .241 and .221.  More telling perhaps, to use one of my favorite stats, BABIP (his batting average in balls in play, balls he actually hit) fell from .295 to .251.

Another way to look at it is to use a stat called WAR (wins above replacement) a rough way of gauging a player's contribution to his team's winning (compared to an average player).  Seager's WAR has fallen from 5.1 in 2016 to 1.6 last year.

These numbers tell is his performance has fallen:  37 fewer hits over a season, roughly one less hit every four games. 10 more players left on base, 21 fewer rbi's, almost 4 less wins. (Thanks to Fangraphs.com for all these great numbers.

What's really scary, is that for all his difficulty in fighting the shift, he pulled the ball more (hit into the shift rather than to center or left) than he had the previous two seasons.

I know some fan don't like breaking the game down like this, it robs baseball of  some of its art and romance.  But in the end, baseball is just balls and strikes and even the smallest things add up.


Thursday, February 14, 2019

Pitchers come and gone



Yusei Kikuchi had his first public bullpen work-out yesterday and, judging by the number of videos posted, he got a lot of attention.  And given the publicity surrounding the M's successful bid to bring him from Japan to the US, that makes sense.  There is no question general manager Jerry Dipoto sees Kikuchi as a critically important piece in rebuilding the team, enough so to trade off ace James Paxton.

I had not seen video of Kikuchi pitching and I was surprised by a couple of things (I'm avoiding posting links in the blog, you can easily find these videos and any other thing I cite by simply typing in the player's name to Google).  He has an easy fluid motion that seems to generate a lot of power.  The surprise is that he lifts his leg in a funny kind of double kick.  He raises it, then drops it a little, and raises it again before completing his motion.  Is this legal?  Is this a balk?  Can't wait to see how umps handle this once the games start.  I looked at some of his archival video from Japan, his double clutch wasn't as pronounced, so maybe he just warms up that way.  

Sad to see the retirement of Doug Fister.  I always liked him.  He broke in with the Mariners in ten years ago.  He didn't do much with them in three seasons, going 12 and 30, but he matured and had some decent years with the Tigers and Nationals. He went 4 and 2 in post-season and the press in Detroit wrote a nice tribute to his years of service there (in the shadow of Verlander and Scherzer). 

Fister was tall, 6-8, but he had an easy, coordinated motion and you could see he had a "good head," he was always in the game.  I think it was that concentration, that composure, that caught my attention.  He was traded for a bunch of Tiger junk in mid-2011, another Zduriencik blunder.

Baseball fans go through this their whole lifetime: a players comes up, you like them for the unlikeliest of reasons, they retire.  Sometimes as stars, sometimes as busts.  Usually with a career of up-and-downs with a couple of moments of glory...  he once struck out nine consecutive batters in a row.  You can look it up.

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

The rotation?




It's a sure bet that the Mariner's pitching rotation at the end of this upcoming season will not look like opening night's.  And between now and March 28's opener there are many, maybe too many, decisions to be made.  

With Paxton gone and no reason to believe Felix is going to turnaround his steep four-year decline, Dipoto is banking on Marco Gonzalez to assume the ace spot. Only 27, Gonzalez has shown some good things and made a full recovery after missing 2016 to Tommy John surgery.  He seems to have both the stuff - a nifty change-up - and the head to improve on last year's 13-9, 4.0.  He tends to be overpowering in the first four or five innings, then to fall off around the sixth.  Tired? Batters figured him out the third time through? Concentration?

Mike Leake and Wade LeBlanc are still around, both better suited to handle the 3 or 4 hole in the rotation.  Unfortunately Felix's proficiency has slipped him to the back of the rotation, too.

Faces on the horizon?  Dipoto made headlines obtaining Japanese leftie Yusei Kikuchi, who they plan to phase in carefully, adjusting him to the rigors of MLB and easing his return from a shoulder injury.  Also in the wings are highly regarded, but untested, off-season acquistions Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson and Justin Dunn.  Roenis Elias is still out there, Kuma, however, returned to Japan.  After that there's a cast of 23 more roster/non-roster pitches to choose from.

Oh yes, and a brand new pitching coach with no major league experience.

February is baseball's month of question-marks and, right now, the M's starting rotation doesn't present many answers.


Tuesday, February 12, 2019

More than just getting in shape



Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto made his intentions for 2019 as soon as the 2018 season ended.  He initially denied that this was a rebuild of a team that had done better than any since 2003, but his tactical moves clearly indicated a larger strategic goal of winning in a year or two and beyond.

Dipoto traded or released most of what had produced a respectable 89 wins in 2018.  He cut payroll, discarded aging players for younger ones and restocked the farm system.  Of the 41 pitchers and catchers reporting to the spring training complex in Peoria yesterday, less than half had been there the year before.  Gone were Paxton, Diaz and Zunino, all mainstays of the rotation, bullpen and backstop.

The new names and faces are too numerous to list here... on top of that, who knows how many of these new players will make it?  For now, all we can do is what Dipoto, manager Scott Servais and the coaches will do for the next six weeks... watch and see.

In addition to determining which new players make the team (or don't) there are two intriguing story-lines from the pitching mound to follow.  

An obvious one concerns the future of Felix Hernandez. A once and past star, having signed a long-term contract six years ago, Felix' performance has declined significantly each year.  Last season was 8-14 with a ugly 5.55 ERA.  No longer the King.  They tried him in the bullpen, with no gain.  He under-performed his way out of being tradable, so the Ms are going to have to carry him for the last year of the team's most expensive contract. Despite management pleas for Felix to get in better physical shape and start relying on other pitches than his fastball (which seems to have lost its motion) he's been stubborn about being the Felix he's always been.  A story to watch.

Then there is the story of the M's new pitching coach, Paul Davis.  So new to the Ms and to major league baseball, he doesn't even have a picture or bio on the team website. (Ryan Divish does have an excellent profile on Davis in this morning's Seattle Times).  Davis is big on the use of statistical analytics, but has never coached a staff beyond the college or the low minors.  It's hard to imagine the challenge he faces, not just working at the major league level, but building a rotation and bullpen from the ground up.  Could be a tall challenge.



Monday, February 11, 2019

The first day of major league baseball!




Any true baseball fan knows this day as surely as his birthday: PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT!  

Sometime over the last four months, winter set in.  Could have been after the last pitch of the World Series, maybe earlier when your team fell out of contention; no more box-scores in the morning newspaper or steady hum of play-by-play on the radio or exciting replays of great moments seen on ESPN... it all disappeared.  But the real fan knew, all the time, deep down, this day would come and, even in the midst of a major northwest snowstorm, down there in the Arizona sun, the pitchers and catchers of the Seattle Mariners would step out on the field and start to throw the ball around.

I haven't added anything to this blog since 2015, but as the baseball season wound down last year I decided to start posting my musings about the game everyday from the pitchers' arrival through the end of the Series.  So here we go, post #1.

Spring training can take on all kinds of narratives, but there is one common denominator from camps in Florida and Arizona: optimism.  From now until the first pitch of the regular season in late March, every one has a chance of winning the pennant.  Any one.  It could happen.  It is going to happen to some team... it might just be yours.

Reality will set in soon enough, but these weeks, leading up to the start of games that count, are full of possibility.  Every pitcher could win 25 games or save 50.  Any hitter could blast 35 home runs or steal 70 bases.  It could happen.  The possibilities are endless.  This is before a single hanging curve-ball is blasted out of the park or a backdoor slider strikes out the side with the bases loaded.  The dark side of baseball will reveal itself soon enough; for now, anything and everything is possible, however unlikely.

So welcome home everyone, fans and players alike.  Time to set aside the things of winter and get ready for a spring and summer full of 3-2 pitches, long lead-offs, warning track catches, passed balls, line drives that scatter the dugout and 5-4-3 double-plays.