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Sunday, March 31, 2019

Cardiovascular challenge?



Can we take these kinds of games?  Ms won their fourth of five games, beating Boston 6 to 5, but only after another frightening ninth inning that looked like the meltdown of the night before.  Except this time Rumbeloe struck out Bogaerts for the last out before the Red Sox could push across the go-ahead run.

Once again, the M's scored early and big, six runs in five innings.  Leake pitched well.  The ninth was the stuff of nightmares.  In a lifetime of games I've never seen a player commit three errors on three consecutive plays as utility thirdbaseman Dylan Moore did last night.  All with two out.  It was a tough break for the rookie making his first MLB start; he went ohferfour with three strikeouts, too.

Moore's miscues sent Twitterati to the record books to see if this had occured before.  Of course it has, many have committed three errors in the same inning.  Consecutive plays?  I dunno.  My search turned up this fascinating piece of baseball lore.  In 1899, Mike Grady, New York Giants thirdbaseman (it ain't called the hot corner for nuthin) committed four errors on the same play.  It went like this:  groundball to Grady, bobbled for first error, threw it over the head of the firstbaseman for the second, had the throw back trying to nail the runner at third bounce off his glove for number three, he retrieved it and promptly made his fourth error when he overthrew the catcher in an effort to put out the batter at home.  So, for poor Dylan it could have been worse.

It was nice to see the players, especially Ryon Healy, rally around him at the end of the game.

Ms wrap up this series with Boston today.  They meet again this season for three games at Fenway.  Mariner batters are going to miss Red Sox pitching,  The first six in the Ms lineup in the last three games are batting .383.

Saturday, March 30, 2019

Reality sucks!


If you're anything like me, last night, around the top of the 8th, with the M's up 6-3 over the Red Sox, and three more homers under the belt, I start thinking about making that order for World Series tickets when, once again, I'm reminded that these are the Seattle Mariners and their job is to lure you into thinking they are a professional baseball team capable of holding a lead over two innings. Quicker than you can say "Sugar Diaz," Rosscup gives up a solo home run and an inning later Hunter Strickland teaches me why it feels so good to drive your hand through a wall, letting Mitch Moreland put Boston ahead with a three-run blast.  And, of course, the Seattle bats go quiet and the last sight of this undefeated team is of Daniel "Clutch" Vogelbach striking out on three pitches.

Did I predict 88 wins?  Make that 78.  How could I have been so foolish?

Friday, March 29, 2019

Three in a row!



I told you they would be streaky.  After an unimpessive start to the game falling behind 2-0, the Mariners just smoked the world champion Boston Red Sox 12 to 4. Santana, Healy, Encarnacion and Perkins all hit home runs, Perkins doing it twice off Chris Sale.

As with his last couple of starts Marco Gonzalez looked so-so in the first two innings, then just settled down and ground through the line-up.  Three earned runs in 5 and a third innings, shutout, one-hit ball from a bullpen crew of Elias, Gearrin and Brennan.

The big surprise was all this unfolded after an unimpressive first inning and a half.  Gonzalez got Benitendi to hit a weak ground-out to first... then three consecutive singles for a run.  The M's start the game with three strike-outs in the bottom of the first.  The Sox pick up another run the next inning, unearned thanks to an error by fill-in third baseman Ryon Healy.  Then the M's bats woke up.  Three runs in the second, four more in the third, with Beckham homering in both of them.

Prior to this game, Beckham's lifetime record against Sale was ohfer 15.

Biggest roar of the game?  Following Mallex Smith's linedrive triple to center in the third... an encouraging sign of things to come.

Before getting too giddy, it's worth remembering Sale had an abbreviated spring training.  He didn't look ready.  Coasting to their third win to start the season Ms were more than ready

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Who's counting?



Those of you who know me are aware that I hold a personal record of which I am quite proud and will add to this afternoon.  Today I will attend my 43rd Seattle major league opener when the Boston Red Sox take on the Seattle Mariners.

I can hear your congratulations now, but one of you smart-asses won't be able to keep from pointing out my arithmetic error.  This will be my 42nd, not my 43rd Seattle opening game... M's first game was in 1977, 42 not 43 years ago.

Au contraire! I will exclaim.  You're forgetting Seattle's other, lost and pretty much forgotten, MLB team... the 1969 Seattle Pilots.  Yes.  There I was, with my good graduate-school buddy Tim Curry and 14,991 folks to witness the home opener of the Pilots in Sicks Stadium.  It was a cool, but sunny afternoon with no rain.  Gary Bell pitched a complete game shut-out to beat the Chicago White Sox 7-0.  By today's standards, seeing a pitcher throw a complete game was remarkable, but even more so, in the days before the Designated Hitter, Bell drove in two runs with a double.  The short sad, might I say, tragic, history of the Pilots is not worth sharing, certainly not on a happy day like this for the Mariners.  But I was there.

Stay tuned, I plan to update this from the game, later.

Go M's!

UPDATE!

I'm here!  Way up in Section 308, at the exact height of the right-field foul pole.


Being seranaded by Macklemore, a Seattle native and big M's fan.

3:51

Surprises already.  Haniger leading off.  Fraitas catching, not off-season pick up Narvaez.
Spectacular guitar solo national anthem by Pearl Jam's Mike McCready.

Lot of goosebumps as brand new Hall of Famer Edgar Martinez introduced to throwout the first pitch.


Game underway, Marco's first pitch: Benitendi, soft groundball to Bruce at first.  Out 3 unassisted.

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Prediction time


I've never been very good at sports predictions, but that's part of the opening day ritual, even though the Mariners have a two-day head start.  My focus has been so concentrated on the Ms this spring I can't say anything for the rest of the teams, you'll have to look elsewhere for those forecasts.

General impression:  this is not a bad team.  It's probably a winning team.  Not by much and not consistently, but there are some good pieces and promising signe amidst a few unfinished components.

My guess... just short of 90 wins.  Never in contention for even a wildcard play-off slot, but just a tad better than average. This is what I call a short streaky team.  4 wins here, 3 losses there.  Promising, but never delivering big time.  Gotta pick a number? 88.

Almost out of contention by July 31 trade-deadline, so they'll be selling and buying.  I'm sure Encanscion will be traded, maybe Bruce, maybe Healy.   If Healy can start getting on-base and keep his power numbers where they've been, he stays.  If Leake keeps doing what he's doing he'll be very attractive on the market, maybe LeBlanc, too... and if these young arms in the minors grow up, the back-end of the rotation is easily replacable.

What would they buy?  I'm not convinced Narvaez is the catcher who fits there needs.  If they can get a good one who can hit and catch, they'd be wise to do it.  Another solid starter would be nice.  I suspect the bullpen will need more talent if team is going to “step up" for 2020.

I see 17 wins for Gonzalez, 14 for Kikuchi and Felix gone.  Strickland will get saves... and some impressive ones.  He's got something to prove and the heart to do it.

My guess is Haniger has a good year, but not the super breakthrough some expect.  He'll have a lot of pressure on him and not a lot of experience.  This will be a good learning year for him.  I see some bouncebsck in Gordon and Seager, when he returns.  I'm hoping for the best from Mallex, but he's going to have new pressure on him, too... I could envision some struggles.  I am excited about Santana... he's going to produce and there will be temptations to trade him, but he could be a solid piece of this line-up.  And if Healy can replace getting called out on strikes with hits, the Ms could have a lethal one-through-five offense.

I like Beckham.  Good guy, decent player, but I don't know if he is a long term solution at SS.  And the future, Crawford in Tacoma, does not impress me, yet.

The old baseball wisdom of being strong up the middle, with Narvaez, Beckham and M.Smith in those spots, concerns me.

Lots of minor league prospects brewing in Tacoma and Little Rock.  Get ready to see them midsummer .

So, 88 wins, fourth place ahead of Texas in AL West.

Play ball!

Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Welcome home,I guess



After all this talk about statistics, let's see how well you can sabre your metrics.  See if three numbers give you a good impression of what last night's "spring training" game against the Padres was like.

San Diego... 4 home runs.
Seattle... 1 hit through 8.
Seattle... 17 strikeouts.

If you guessed an 8 zip drubbing you'd be right.  Giving up six runs to your opponent in the top of the first kind of spoils the evening.

I didn't know Koufax, Clemens and Nolan Ryan were pitching for the Padres now.

Here's hoping we see the team that went undefeated in Japan.  Maybe more Tokyo Dome sushi and gyoza, less T-Mobile Park garlic fries.

*******. UPDATE ********

Today's game was marginally better than last night's, if extending your scoreless streak to a total of 18 innings is an improvement.  But, the M's got one more hit and four less strikeouts.  30 Ks in two games is a sobering thought before Seattle's real season begins again Thursday.  I honestly can't remember the last time the Mariners ever went 18 innings without scoring.  Dreadful.

Monday, March 25, 2019

Stathead!



Like a lot of things in early baseball history, the inventor of the box score is wreathed in controversy, but many acknowledge Henry Chadwick, a Brooklyn based sportswriter, as one of its first and most ardent proponents.  As far back as the 1850's.

With so many sources of news and realtime information about games today, the venerable box score is disappearing from the back of newspaper sports sections where for years whole pages of agate type were devoted to them. You can still see them, MLB.com publishes the boxes for every game, but... .

For my 13th birthday my parents gave me one of my best presents ever, a subscription to the Sporting   News a weekly national newpaper that, in those days, chronicled baseball.  I think it arrived in the mail every Wednesday and I'd spend the rest of the day, deep into the night, poring over a week's worth of box scores, reliving every minute of the games of my hero, Ted Kluszewski.

Of course, the box scores were accumulated into long tables listing player performance.  And over the years the batting average and earned run average proliferated into a dizzying number of statistical abbreviations like BABIP and WHIP and igOPS and WAR.  You'll quickly become confused, but you'll learn a lot about your team or any player if you start poking around sites like baseballreference.com or fangraphs.com.   There are lots of other good sites and this infatuation with numbers has migrated to all the other major sports, too. Watch out!  This stuff is addictive.

To finish where I started, my reference to teaching statistics as a tactic to avoid talking with people sitting next to me on an airplane... well, there was once when it didn't work and a couple of times when I wisely didn't invoke the rule.

Only once did anyone want to pursue a high-altitude statistics chat.  Some OCD jerk who must of missed his days asking inane questions from the back of the lecture hall, boring his classmates and irritating his professor, really wanted to talk about the difference between variance and standard deviation.  You can be sure I gave that cretin far more than he ever asked for.  I had that horse's ass drawing normal curves on the back of paper drink napkins!

And, I made it a policy to suspend my silence policy if my seatmate was a very attractive woman.  In over two million miles of flying, except for times sitting next to my beautiful wife, Kathleen, that happened maybe six times or, once every 386,870.8 miles.  You can look it up!

Sunday, March 24, 2019

Statistics



I learned long-ago, when I began flying 100,000 miles a year, for twenty consecutive, that if I wanted to travel without interruption from my seatmate, a sure way to guarantee silence was to answer with three words the inevitable question, "what do you do for a living?"  Telling them, "I teach statistics," worked every time.

Nothing quiets people up faster than the revelation that you work with numbers.  I don't know, maybe admitting you are an accountant would chill conversation as well.  I don't think so, someone might ask you a question about their taxes.  But statistics?  Backdoor slider.  Freeze them everytime.

The truth of it was, I really did teach stat, or quantitative methods as it came to be called in the social sciences and I really enjoyed it.  It actually became one of my favorite courses to teach.  Which was funny, because growing up I hated math.  And to this day, I dread the calculation of even fairly simple arithmetic.

So what turned me into a numbers geek, nimble with all sorts of statistical tools on up to complex multiple regression models?

Baseball.  Long before today's so-called "analytics" or sabremetrics or Money Ball the game inspired a supportive cottage industry that allowed fans to savor the game contest-by-contest, season-by-season, all through numbers.  I never saw a professional game until I was 13, but years earlier I had learned how to figure out, represent actually, what had occurred in a game by reading the "box score" in the morning newspaper.

What a brilliant invention.  Here's a classic one from my childhood, 1957.


Real baseball fans will recognize this one right away.  It's the Dodgers' last game in Brooklyn before moving to LA.  I can see it all.  Those bare, stark numbers tell the whole story.  A quick game, just over two hours before a small crowd of 6,702.  A pitcher’s duel, the Dodgers getting to Daniels early, who allowed Gilliam and Cimoli to get on base and Valo, who doubled and Hodges to drive them in. 

To be continued....

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Just hanging out until Thursday



The early start in Japan and all the associated drama finished, the next few days drag on until the M's season restarts on Thursday.  There are workouts and Fanfest, two more exhibitions with the Padres, then resumption of the real season.  And, of course, one big flip in the roster: Inchiro gone, Mallex Smith ready to play.

Partly out of boredom, partly out of curiosity, I took some time to look at older, much older, posts I'd made to this blog.  They go back ten years.  On May 20, 2009, I wrote about baseball for the first time.  Somethings never change I guess.  Here's part of what I said then:

There's just no way I can talk over any period of time and not get around to baseball. It has been a passion since I was 8 and today still represents a major interest… all of it, the game, the history, the statistics, the physical activity. Tom Boswell used to speak of the "flash of the green," that first glimpse of the field seen as you enter a stadium tunnel: so full of promise, so inviting. Baseball has been a pastime, both active and passive, and a metaphor for a lot of things in my life. Not a day passes, at least from the start of spring training in February to World Series' final out, that doesn't find me thinking about it.
I grew up a Dodger fan. They abandoned Brooklyn but liberated southern California when I was in the 8th grade. Somehow I'd already become addicted to the game, following from the west coast the exploits of the Cincinnati Reds and my hero Ted Kluszewski starting a couple of years earlier. The arrival of the Dodgers three years later was truly a dream come true. 

June 28, 1959 (exactly 14 years to the day my son Matt was born) marks the moment of the first major league baseball game I'd ever seen. By then, an aging Big Klu had been traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Although he didn't play that day (another poor managerial decision by skipper Danny Murtaugh) I did see him hit a ball out during BP. I failed to get his autograph after the game; he rebuffed me with a "get away, kid" and boarded the team bus. He wore a shiny green silk suit and clamped the biggest cigar I have ever seen in his mouth. My mother never forgave him, but he remained a God in my mind.

Later, now residing in the Pacific Northwest, my allegiance… suffering allegiance I should say… shifted to the Seattle Mariners. The one-year wonder Pilots preceded them and I may belong to a very small club of people who have attended every opening day of major league baseball in Seattle, starting with the Pilots in 1969, then picking up again with the Ms in 1977. Sicks Stadium to the Kingdome to Safeco… with a few notable exceptions I've seen a lot of mediocre baseball. 

I never look at Daniel Vogelbach that I don't think of Big Klu.  Vogie, by the way, is the cause of one of my most embarrassing moments.  It was close to a year ago at the M's home opener.  You can read all about it here in my Facebook post the next day:

https://www.facebook.com/100000957770498/posts/1933650526676854/

I'm not sure the video link is still active, but you'll get the idea.

Friday, March 22, 2019

Just waiting for the rest of the season to start



Yesterday's post prompted a discussion about the state of the game with an old friend.  He told me, despite my profound respect, my coolness felt toward Ichiro, reflected his general feeling about today's players... that he just doesn't care about Harper, Machado or Trout.  He went on to contend "the business" of baseball had removed the "human element" from the game.

Whenever I hear that argument I'm not sure it comes from a change in the game itself or the eyes through which we view it.  Probably both.  I do know many of us, myself included, see a different game than the one we fell in love with 50 or 60 years ago.

I think the attraction and beauty of the game are still there, the flash of the green, the sound of the ball on bat.  I think the tactics have changed, the shift, the DH.  I know it has always been a business, but the craveness of the O'Malleys and such was less evident than the greed of today's owners.  My friend may be right.  The players are different... free agency has converted them into entrepreneurs, business men in their own right, whose allegiance and, quite honestly, fealty are no longer to a team and its city, but to their own craven greed.

But if I think about it, the majority of players today are still pretty regular folk and I can still relate to them as people who love to play the game I love to watch.  Certainly observing the outpouring of emotion his teammates expressed as Ichiro left the field yesterday touched a common chord in all of us.

And then there are other reminders.  Don't miss Emily Waldon's excellent and eye-opening piece in the Athletic exposing the financial realities of playing in the minor leagues: 

https://theathletic.com/830452/2019/03/15/i-cant-afford-to-play-this-game-minor-leaguers-open-up-about-the-realities-of-their-pay-and-its-impact-on-their-lives/

Her article reminds us that just below the surface of baseball, for the average player, are wives, kids, mortgages and college debt to pay off, not to mention a lifetime of occupational insecurity to think about when the game is done.

Or I think about Dee Gordon, his eyes full of tears as he hugged Ichiro.  The story of his childhood couldn't be more human:  


More outstanding reporting from the Athletic this time from Jayson Jenks.

I think what used to be there is still there, but there's an awful lot of bs to cut through to find it.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Sayonara, what else?


The Mariners leave Tokyo with a 5-4 extra inning win to sweep the A's in their season opening series.  Perhaps even more significantly, the game also marked Ichiro Suzuki's retirement as a player.

While I have always admired Ichiro for his extraordinary skills as a player and for the dedication, focus and respect he brings to the game, I have never been a big fan.  Certainly not as taken with him as many are, as you could see in the constant outpouring of affection heaped on him by the fans in Japan today.  But it was impossible not to be touched by the emotions seen on the faces of his teammates as he left the field.  The sight of Yusei Kikuchi, crying on the night of his major league debut was moving.

The year Ichiro came to the US was the same we had a mini-season ticket package for the Ms.  We sat in Section 108, straightaway right.  After years of watching and interacting with affable Jay Buhner, Ichiro's focused style seemed distant, almost aloof.  He was constantly stretching, bending, adjusting something on his cap or uniform.  He seemed to be preparing for something before each pitch.  His batting ritual never changed, right though his last at-bat tonight.  He would settle in, stare, I mean really stare, out at the pitcher, adjust his feet and hips, then lift his right arm to point his bat, slightly upwards, but toward the stands, while his left hand would reach around to his extended shoulder to release any binding from his uniform sleeve.  

Methodical preparstion.  And, you know whst?  It worked.  I know it occurred, but I cannot recall ever seeing Ichiro make s fielding error.  And until only recently had I ever seen him called out on strikes.  He was a baseball phenomenon of a sort never experiencef before in my lifetime and perhsps unlikely to be seen again.

Truth be told, as his playing time had wound down, I've actually worried about him.  Where does sll that focus and intensity go?  I wish him well.

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

It's a W!


We got to see early this morning what this Mariner's season is really going to be like.  Certainly can't complain about opening with a 9-7 win against the A's on the road... way on the road, about as far down it as you can get, in Tokyo of all places.

Maybe it was the early hours. I found I kept rubbing my eyes. But maybe that's because the game was not quite what I expected.  If we had been making prop bets I might have gone with Domingo Santana for the M's first home run of the season but a grand slam?  To the opposite field?  To wipe out an early two-run deficit?   No way.  And I surely wouldn't have bet on Beckham to hit one out or that it would be part of his 3 for 3 day.

Marco made his first of what are hoped to be many opening day starts.  He looked ok at first and grew stronger pitching a slick 1-2-3 in the sixth.  First time he's looked in the groove since the first inning of spring training.  Except for Rumbelow, bullpen looked great.  Strickland can bring it!

Much of the night was about Ichiro.  His big moment?  He drew a walk.

Baseball at 3 in the morning is surreal.

Do it again tomorrow.

 

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

The curtain rises



It is less than 18 hours before the Mariner's 2019 season begins in Tokyo against their division rival, the Oakland A's.  All the dewy-eyed speculation of the off-sesson and spring soon to be replaced by the cold hard stare of reality.  Will this reimagined team of Dipoto's win or will his vision evaporate before our eyes into just another disappointing season?  I'm willing to keep the dream alive for awhile.

First pitch at 2:35 a.m. PDT.  Oakland is the home team, wonder how that was determined?

Another injury, a disturbing one, reliever Shawn Armstrong on the IL for ten: an onlique strain.  He looked good this spring.  The bullpen doesn't need any more instability.

Had a nice note from Dominic Snyder who questioned my estimate of Haniger's home run traveling 600 feet.  He's probably right... I confessed in advance to dubious geometry.  Here's my revised guess.  I didn't take into account that a home run, any base hit for that matter, is not a perfect arc.  The speed at which the ball comes off the bat begins to decelerate as it moves forward.  Upon reaching its peak, the ball's forward progress declines at an increasing pace... in other words the ball slows down moving forward and, as gravity acts on it, begins to drop faster.

I guess the ball had traveled 300 feet by the top of it's arc.  It surely wouldn't have traveled another 300, so I'm guessing Haniger hit a home run in the 550, maybe less range.  Still an impressive poke.

Monday, March 18, 2019

We sweep Yomiuri and some dubious geometry



The Mariners wrapped up their two game exhibition series with the Yomiuri Giants in the Tokyo Dome with a 6-5 win gained through another late-inning power burst.  Down by two in the seventh Mitch Haniger drove a mammoth homer into the hanging curtains in left center to tie the game.  David Freitas, celebrating his 30th birthday, put the M's ahead with a solo-shot the next inning.  The bullpen pitched five scoreless innings of one-hit ball to notch a two game sweep of the Giants.

Notable in the game:  Ichiro started and went hitless three more times.  He had a cringe-worthy at bat where he was called out on strikes, but he unleashed a vintage Ichi-throw from mid-rightfield on a fly straight into Healy's glove at third to hold a runner at second.  After the game manager Scott Servais announced Ichiro will be added to the roster for the opening of the season against the A's Wednesday and, if he starts, will become the second oldest player after Julio Franco, by around 100 days, to do that in MLB history.  Unless his hitting turns around immediately, his 2 for 31 performance, an .065 spring BA, portends the end of his playing career.

It was another disappointing start for Felix.  Five runs, one unearned, in four innings.  He threw a lot of pitches close to 80, struggling to get strikes, walking three.  The Nippon TV close-ups, a favorite image for that network, revealed a Felix who by the end of his start looked tired.  It feels like the time is running out for the King, too.

Haniger's home run was really long.  Take a look, thanks to video from MLB's Los Marineros: https://twitter.com/losmarineros/status/1107648442195681286?s=21.

I haven't seen any estimate.  It's about 361 to left-center and the wall is 13 feet high.  The stands look to be another 25 feet higher and maybe 80 feet further from the fence and the drapery which hangs against the back wall looks to be another 12 feet higher.  The ball appears to hit the curtain up another five feet, so Haniger' blast traveled between 380-390 out of the field and hit the back wall of the stadium 55 feet in the air.

True, the arc of the ball was starting downward and here I'm pushing my knowledge to its geometric limits.  I'd guess the ball's fligtht peaks about 50 feet from the wall and hits the curtain at an altitude of 55 feet.  Had this been an open ballpark, I think this ball would have traveled a good 600 feet.  I'm embarrassed to admit I never took trig in high school, but I know physicists have figured out how to calculate home run distances.  The article I found explaining this technique may as well be written in Japanese for all the sense I can make of it:  http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/Statcast-TPT.pdf   I'll leave it to you to figure it out.  All I know is he hit it a long way.

Watching the end of Ichiro's and Felix' career cast a decidedly bittersweet pall over these last two games.  Careers end for the best of them, but it is hard to watch just hours away from the start of a brand new season.

Mariners have the day off tomorrow then they play for real Wednesday.  First pitch on the west coast: 2:35 a.m., tv on ESPN, radio on KIRO-710 in Seattle.

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Tokyo Dome, part 2



This game was all about Ichiro, as far as the Nippon TV broadcast was concerned, even after he was pulled in the 7th inning (0 for 3... at least he hit the ball all three times).  Ichiro stayed in the dugout, slightly down a set of stairs, hidden partly by Scott Servais standing on the top steps.  I never noticed before.  Maybe this is Ichiro's preferred perch. I don't think so, it appeared as though he was hiding and who could blame him when the NHK cameras recorded his reaction to everything that occurred.

What was hardest to see were those reactions... serious, probative, seemingly reflective.  Except for a wan smile celebrating Dee Gordon's unlikely line-drive home run to right-center, he appeared unhappy, his eyes darting back and forth, contemplating something.  Thinking whst?  He interacted with no one.  He was alone, by choice it would appear.  What was he looking at so intently?  Did all this conjure up memories?  Was he thinking about tough personal decisions he will surely have to make in the next few days?

I thought the best moment of the night for the game and Ichiro came as the line-ups were being introduced.  The M's players and coaches were arrayed along the third-baseline line.  Ichiro was batting ninth, I think intentionally.  All spring he'd been batting 7th, but putting him in the nine spot meant he would be the next to the last introduced and the last one out of the dugout (pitcher Mike Leake was warming up).  Greg John captured it, albeit at some distance.  

https://twitter.com/gregjohnsmlb/status/1107111095154573312?s=21

Ichiro runs out, heads to the front of the line, turns and offers a gesture of gratitude to the crowd.  When he reaches the first person, Scott Servais, there is a slight hesitation as they go to shake hands and the manager offers a modest, Japanese-style, bow to Ichiro.  And as he goes down the line the rest of the coaches and starting teammates do the same.

It is a fitting, well-deserved and meaningful tribute.

.......

The game itself.  The M's won, a late-inning outburst of power with homers from Haniger, Bruce and, again improbably, Dee Gordon.  Encarnacion hit a most impressive monster shot all the way to the dead-center wall that was caught on a great play by Maru.  Leake pitched okay, not great.  Certainly a sevicable and encouraging start before the games start count.

Infield play was a little ragged, perhaps due to the new turf installed last week.  Ryon Healy still seems to be struggling at the plate.  He took a lot of strikes in his early at-bats, then started swingly wildly as the game went on.  He needs to start making contact.

Bullpen was lights-out.  Hunter Strickland looked particularly sharp, in midseason for with a fastball hitting 96.  Elias gave up a run, but actually looked good.

Japanese broadcast, aside from it Ichiromania, offered some interesting contrasts to what we're used to seeing.  More replay, from some different angles mostly.  They isolate on the pitcher's hand to get an idea of finger placement.  And they focus on the batter's eyes.  They also use a camera that peeks in just over the catcher's shoulder to give a good look at the pitch as the batter may see it.

The crowd was as advertised.  Singing, bands playing, coordinated cheers.  Loud.

Set your alarm.  3 a.m. tomorrow morning.

Live! From the Tokyo Dome, part 1



We had all been told there would be no radio or television broadcast from Japan of the M's game with the Yomiuri Giants.  But with some improvisation, a little luck and a good tip I was able to watch the game live on the Nippon TV broadcast.  The guys in the booth, of course, spoke Japanese, but the game was easy to follow and the camera work superb.

I started on line, using MLB.com's Gameday app which posts, agsinst a static graphic bsckground of a batter in the box, a pitch by pitch account of each at bat.  It's works well, I've been using to follow games for years.  While streaming it on the internet is new, the idea has been around for a long time.  Newspapers used to post game progress outside their offices snd during major events, like a World Series game, crowds would gather to see the teletyped results.

Twitter was a good supplement to the Gameday reports.  And I appreciate the efforts of Seattle media representatives, most notably, Greg Johns, Shannon Drayer and Ryan Divish, along with the Mariners public relations team to keep us informed.  By the second inning I had a pretty good idea of how the game was going and how the players, especially Ichiro, the focus of last night's game.  The reporters also did a great job capturing the atmosphere and antics of the Japanese crowd.

Then a tweet showed up from John Drummond (thank you) who informed us that the game was broadcast live in Japan on Nippon TV through a website, www.aqstream.com.  It worked perfectly.  I also heard you could see the game through Hulu, but I didn't try it.  So it works.  And it's free.  If you want to see the next match-up of the M's and the Y Giants, you're going to have to get up early... first pitch 3 a.m. Pacific-Tiajuana time.

Enough with the streaming technique, what did I see?  Ichiro.  Plenty of Ichiro.  And embarassing amount of Ichiro.  We had been told the story was big in Japan... well that was an understatement.  Without understanding a word of what was said, the constant shots of Ichiro often doing nothing but standing in the outfield or peering from the dugout dominated the coverage.  It got to the point I began to feel sorry for him.  A screen cap I took:


Saturday, March 16, 2019

In the house of the rising sun



Spring training and the opening of the 2019 season have been pushed aside by the arrival of the M's and the A's in Japan.  There is undeniable excitement from all involved about this trip and considerable anticipation at the welcome Ichiro will receive at the Tokyo Dome.  The major league debut of Yusei Kikuchi, ironically occuring in his homeland and, to a much lessor extent, the return of former Japan league players, M's Wade LeBlanc and A's Cliff Pennington sparks interest.  Of course, Japanese fans are also thrilled to see hall of famers, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Ricky Henderson as part of the entourage.

It's instructive to read the English-language edition of the Japan Times.  They are as curious as we are to Ichiro's next move, with some sentiment that he use his Tokyo games to retire from playing.  But those interviewed concede that it's Ichiro's call and he has always made his own decisions.  Just reading between the lines, it feels like Suzuki is not real happy right now.  He looked thuggish with his knit cap pulled low coming off the plane and seemed sullen at a press conference, irritated they didn't ask manager Scott Servais more questions

Felix, however, was elated to arrive, greeting the crowd of fans and press at Haneda airport, with "I'm  here! I'm here."

What hasn't been given much notice is the fact that, former M's starter, Hisashi Iwakuma has returned to Japan and joined the Giant team.  He's on the roster, but it is unclesr if he is ready to pitch.

By the way, there are two North American pitchers, both relievers, on the Yomiuri Giants roster.  Scott Mathieson, who appears to be hurt, and Ryan Cook, who pitched for the M's last year.  Cook appeared in 19 games, went 2 and 1 with a less than impressive 5.29 ERA.  Cook, who also pitched with the A's a couple of seasons, appears to be their closer.

Shout outs to Jen Mueller of Root Sports and Shannon Drayer of Northwest Sports (KIRO-710) who do a great job of keeping in touch.


Friday, March 15, 2019

Speed baseball


The latest rule changes proposed by MLB and the player's union are so insignificant as to leave you wondering why even bother.  Their impacts on the same itself are almost neglible.

They say they want to speed the game up.  So, cutting down mound visits from six to five will shorten games by what, three minutes?  Reducing tv commercial time between innings by 20 seconds, will save another six minutes.  Are the people who complain about the length and slow pace of baseball going to even notice the game, which now averages 3:00:11 according MLB, is almost ten minutes shorter?  MLB leadership, which trademarked gridlock well before the US Congress thought of it, is engaged in public relations more than substantive reform.

Except for one change, the rest, which to go into effect in 2020, are superficial, aimed at either getting fans more excited about the All-Star game or allowing teams to increase roster size from 25 to 26.  Adding a player simply recognizes that the increased use of relievers and the consequent growth in the size of bullpens has squeezed position players out of the dugout.

What is interesting, less for the game on the field than the business in the back-office, is the elimination of August waiver trades which have functionally allowed dealing to slip by the July 30 deadline.  No trades allowed after the deadline, although players can be waivered.

As usual, this is about business, not the quality of the game and the real news in all of this is that the owners and union are talking and a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is in the offing.  Given the sluggish way free agency sorted its way out this season, with premier players like Keuchel and Kimbrel still unsigned, those negotiations should be hot.

Substantatively, the changes announced the other day allow MLB to look like they are doing something more than actually improving the game.

Thursday, March 14, 2019

A sleepless night



With the M's pulling up stakes from spring training to open their season in Tokyo, it seemed like a good time to summarize my thoughts about the future of this team in 2019.  I made the mistake of pondering that question just before I turned out the lights to go to bed.  I fretted over my answer until early dawn.

I am embarassed to confess I am one of those fans whose emotional well-being rises and falls with the petformance of my home teams, most especially the Mariners.  My daughter Errin will never forget the psychic meltdown I had in the parking lot of the Oakland Coliseum following a late-inning loss marked by, if dark memories serve, two errors at third base by Mike Blowers.  I just don't follow this team and now write about it, I live this.

It pains me then to pass on the thoughts I struggled with in the dark hours of the early morning.  This is not a very good team and investing too much hope in it is not only unrealistic but heart-breaking.  What makes this conclusion so hard to take is this, like many past M's roster, is full of likable, generally able players.  They are easy to root for.  But it the end, like so many other Mariner teams, it just doesn't add up.

And watching a very talented Marco Gonzalez struggle in his last two starts only underscored my gloom.  Marco, who will be an ace and, hopefully the backbone of a championsip team in years to come (just not 2019) is not quite ready.  Nor is the rest of the team.  They are either older veterans who have pretty much topped out and even then weren't championship quality (Gordon, Bruce, Encarnacion, Narvaez, Beckham, Leake, LeBlanc, Seager, Hernandez) and, in the case of the latter two, may be on their way down, or they are richly talented young, untested, players who look like a year or two away from stardom (Smith, Healy, Marco, Vogelbach, Santana, Kikuchi, Gonzalez, even Haniger).

Are there some wins in that group? You bet. I think the can get 85, maybe more.  Can they challenge for the play-offs?  Not yet.  This team is exactly what Dipoto promised... a step back in preparation for a competitive run in 2020 (maybe) or 2021 (possibly) if my list of future stars led by Haniger and Gonzalez mature and guys like Bishop, Moore, Sheffield, Swanson, Dunn, White, Lewis, Crawford and Long become MLB ready.

Notably missing from these two lists... relievers.  I have no idea where the bullpen stands.  I think Strickland has some upside.  The others?  I can't tell the difference between Bradford, Brennan, Rumbelow, Gearrin and all the rest.

The last few spring games provided a realistic picture of what the season will be like.  Hitting: homers, strike-outs and double plays; fewer men on base than you would like and too many left standing there at the end of an inning.  Pitching: lots of strike-outs, either really sharp through six or struggling to get out of three.

In fact, I'd argue that by the end of three innings, you'll be able to predict the game's outcome with a high degree of accuracy.  They will either lead, probably 3 to zip, and go on to win, or be down 4 to 2, and lose.  Throw in a couple of late-inning bullpen collapses and I've pretty much summarized you evening tv watching for this summer.

This is not all bad news.  Probably not what I want to think with the season's opening a week away.  You can love these guys all you want, cause you gotta do that, but don’t give your heart away.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Arrivederci, Peoria


I decided to hold off tonight's post until Marco finished his start in the M's last Arizona game.  Everyone was looking for him to get six innings of tune-up, but he wasn't sharp and didn't get out of the third.  He had three walks and didn't have precise control... that's how the pitches came to add up so fast.

Team flies out to Japan tomorrow so roster is close to set.  Looks like Dylan Moore beat out Negron for the utility slot.  One week and the real deal starts.

Nice homer from third baseman Ryon Healy.  Another K for Ichiro.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Second act let down



F. Scott Fitzgerald once famously quipped "there are no second acts in American lives," a fact to which recently released Dustin Ackley can sadly attest.  Taken SECOND in the first round of the 2009 draft, Ackley may not be the biggest bust of Mariner #1 draft picks (Tito Nanni? Jeff Clement?) but he might be the most frustrating because we watched him fall flat right in front of our eyes.

And seeing him back with the Ms this spring only served as a reminder of his puzzling failure to live up to expectations... a sober reminder as we get giddy at all the young talent in this camp.  There was no explanation, no excuse.  After a first good taste, he just went sour in the refrigerator.

He was fast-tracked and in the majors in less than two years.  He'd had a stellar career in college at UNC, posted good, not great numbers at AA and AAA in 2010 and came up after playing well in his first 60 AAA games of 2011 (.303 BA, .908 OPS).  His first year in Seattle was quite promising, hitting .273 in 90 games.

Then who knows what went wrong.  Except for a couple of dozen games with the Yankees in 2015, he never came close to hitting like that again, ending up with a .241 lifetime batting average. The radio/tv heads suggested he starting experimenting with his stance and swing ending up losing what he knew as he kept tinkering.

I always thought it was the stupid beard he grew.  No, actually, I think he was psyched out by his teammate who had played with him at North Carolina, was drafted the same year by the same team, but in the third round, and come up to the Ms in 2011 same year... Kyle Seager.  And from the git-go Seager was a better player.  Even with his recent woes, Seager at his worst was a hard-hitting, gritty, superb infielder who just had trouble figuring out the shift.  

Chalk it up to Tarheel envy.

All in all, sorry to see the Ack go.  For the first few weeks after he came up, he looked like the real deal.  Then... not so much.



Monday, March 11, 2019

It looked worse than it was, but it was pretty bad anyway



A day after worrying that the Mariner's unreliable bullpen could sink their season, they gave up 25 runs in two split-squad games yesterday.  The good news, I guess, is 13 of those runs came from two pitchers.  The bad news was seven of them came from Felix, who after a couple of good innings, surprise, surprise, couldn't get anyone out in the fourth.

Felix has expressed displeasure at not getting to pitch this season's opener, ending a streak of ten.  And any reasonable fan can understand his disappointment, just one more sign of his steady decline in pitching effectiveness.  It hardly seems fair for his career to end this way, particularly after all those years of dedicated service and excellent starts wasted behind a dreadful offense that gave no support.  It is, however, impossible to overlook a spring with an ERA over 15.

Speaking of declines, Ichiro had another o-fer, with two more strikeouts, bring his batting average down to .091.

Other gloomy news from yesterday:  looks like Kyle Seager's wrist injury is more severe than originally believed: Dipoto said, "not a matter of days."  And flame-throwing Gearson Bautista left the game clutching his chest at what appeared to be a pec strain.

Sunday, March 10, 2019

Back to earth



Spring training, for all its dreamy and visionary speculation, runs straight into brute reality sometimes.  And the Mariner's last two games warn of a future of some frustrating and unsatisfsctory moments.  That the losses came against "real" contending teams like the Dodgers and Cubs may better reveal the M's actual potential than less challenging competitors like the A's, Rangers and Padres.

Friday was a whipping at the hands of Chicago.  Pitching just got clobbered, even with their newly acclaimed opening night starter "ace,"Marco Gonzalez, on the mound.  To be fair, Marco had on off night, not uncommon for even the best pitchers in spring training.  But despite a powerful Mariner response, pitching let them down.  And that remains this team's weakest element, a so-so starting rotation when you get past Gonzalez and an unknown, untested bullpen that will remain unreliable until proven otherwise.

Saturday's contest against Los Angeles showed the alternate worst case scenario for the M's... one that has been characteristic of the last few seasons, sadly reflective of most King Felix's best years: superb pitching with no run support from a potent offense that suddenly turns cold.

These two losing modes need more than new players for its correction.  The M's need consistency.  Both the pitching and offense need to show up every night.  I just can't get excited about future seasons watching Evan White launch bombs only to witness Eric Swanson give up the lead next inning or to see Justus Sheffield strike out the side followed by Braden Bishop grounding into an inning-ending, bases loaded double-play.

I don't know who is responsible for assuring gametime consistency.  Maybe the flaw lies within the manager, Scott Servais.  All I know is all the talent in the world cannot overcome inconsistent play.

Note:  a correction.  The above wasn't fair to the bullpen.  Except for Marco's poor start Friday and two home runs yielded by Swanson to Kiki Hernandez (welcome to the bigs kid!) the next eight pitchers had a line of 11 innings, 4 hits and no runs.  Maybe there's a bullpen there afterall, but those pitchers won't succeed if starters put them in a hole and batters don't score runs.

Saturday, March 9, 2019

Beating the clock



Looks like everything else that's been accelerated to accomodate the M's trip to Japan next week, the traditional spring training event of pitchers "hitting the wall" arrived early... at least for Marco Gonzalez.  Last night was just ugly. In three previous starts he'd given up one run and four hits.  In his start against the Cubs Friday night he gave up 9! in 3 and 2/3rds... that's what a dozen hits (yikes!), two walks and some dubious defensive plays will do to you.  Hard to imagine Ichiro losing a flyball in the lights.

Truth be told, Kikuchi didn't look that sharp the night before or LeBlanc and Leake in their last starts.  Reports are Hernandez was so-so in a B-game, but he's been that way all spring.  Up until now the other four starters have looked remarkably well tuned.  So maybe the wall beckons after all.

Marco suggested that moving to night games may have thrown his "clock off."  He gets one more try before they fly to Japan, here's hoping he'll break through the wall by then.  But don't we still face the notorious spring pitching arrival of "dead arms?"

Ichiro continues to struggle.  Along with the fly ball that landed ten yards behind him, he was 0 for 2... a ground-out he would have beat out for a hit a few years ago and another strikeout.  He's batting .100 and since he blooped a hit in his first at bat of spring training, he's gone 1 for 19.  When does it become embarassing?

An injury to Kyle Seager's wrist took him out of lsst night's game.  Tough break for a guy who came to camp with a some impressive new things and an admirable commitment to return to his hitting prowess before other teams began to shift him to death.  Reports are is he is okay, but the injury is a reminder of how thin experienced takent is for this team.  There are a lot of good, young players available, but no one who could come close to replacing Seager at third, especially with his revived bat.

Good to see Jay Bruce homer.  More pressure for roster decisions concerning first base.




Friday, March 8, 2019

Keep 'em coming


As this spring progresses the outlines of Dipoto's reimagined team become clearer.  I think my hypothesis that he went out to get more Mitch Hanigers is proving true.  Along with Jake Fraley the next candidate in my list of Mitch-alikes is Braden Bishop.

I'm a pretty alert baseball fan, at least as far as the AL West is concerned, but prior to this last couple of weeks I'd never heard of Fraley or Bishop, much less imagined I'd be getting excited about watching them hit.

Bishop was raking last night in the M's clobbering of the Reds.  Again, Haniger hitting, line-drives all over the feel, some good power, patience at the plate.  As much as I liked Gamel and Heredia, the prospect of Fraley and Bishop backing up an outfield of Santana, Smith and Haniger looks promising.  That is not a 81-win or lesx team.  Maybe these guys can compete.

Oh, and let's not forget Kyle Lewis who was in right last night.  He's less of a surprise, we've been hearing about Lewis for sometime.  He's healthy, at last, and he looks like these guys with even more power.  Just watch this guy at the plate.  His bat looks like a toothpick in his hands and he is just comfortable up there.  His grace and confidence remind me of Mike Trout.

Keep watching!

Thursday, March 7, 2019

Who's on first?



As the spring unfolds it's clear Dipoto and Servais need to sort out the logjam at first which, with the emergence of Domingo Santana, may have gotten more complicated.

At the end of lsst season it looked like firstbase was all for Ryon Healy to take.  Acquired the winter before for a minor leaguer and a good, not great, reliever, Emilio Pagan, Healy's performance last year was less than expected, but promising enough to look forward to this season.

Healy's competition was Daniel Vogelbach, the giant who can play first, but slots in better as a DH.  Vogie has, however, to live up to the promise of his massive Popeye forearms.  But keeping both Healy and Vogelbach was a reasonable decision if both could live up to their promise.

Over the winter, two complications arose with the acquisition of Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce, both proven hitters who could fill a 1B-DH rotation.  Encarnacion was supposed be traded, but that hasn't occurred yet.  Bruce was also possible trade bait and offered another option playing in leftfield.

Complicated enough, then comes along Domingo Santana.  Turns out Domingo can hit, four home runs already this spring.  Not just home runs but mammoth shots worthy of comparison to recently departed "Boomstick" Nellie Cruz.  If Santana can continue to hit like this, no one is platooning with him in left.  To keep Bruce he has to play at first.

To make future decisions even harder, Vogelbach has had a torrid spring and Healy has been slow to warm up. 


Wednesday, March 6, 2019

True to the blue


The annual set of Mariner's commercials were released today.  My recollection there were usually six, this year only fout.  As usual, clever and amusing.  Kyle Seager's is best by my estimation.  As was his last year.  His deadpan performance is well-suited paired up with Mallex' speed and hyperactivity.

M's pitching not so hot tonight.  Six runs, five charged to LeBlanc, who gave up a homer along with Leyer.  Get ready, there are going to be nights like this all through the season.

Would have preferred to see Mallex in the line-up over the commercial.

Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Maybe


Jake Fraley's hitting has got to be drawing attention.  The former Modesto Nut acquired as part of the Zunino trade with the Rays went two-for-two today with his second Cactus League home run.  He plays a credible centerfield, too.

He's hitting at formidable .438.  Minor league stats aren't that impressive...looks like he's been hurt a lot.  Rght now he's a lot more impressive than Mallex Smith who came over in the same trade.

Monday, March 4, 2019

Quiet day


No game today, quiet day in camp, more Seahawks news than Mariners.

There was a brief stir yesterday when a rumor lit up Twitter from a Ryan Divish (Seattle Times M's beat reporter) post from a "Braves fan" speculated about a deal for Mitch Haniger.  I don't think so... Dipoto has the team's future linked to Haniger and Gonzalez.

Sunday, March 3, 2019

Please excuse my obsessiveness, my obsessiveness, my obsessiveness



I just couldn't put aside my curiosity about a possible trend in Felix Hernandez' pitching performance: to my eyes he often has a stellar first inning followed by a less effective, much so, second.  That pattern is certainly what he has shown in his first spring training starts.  I needed to look at data to confirm what I thought I was seeing.

So, I looked at the first two innings of his 27 starts in 2018.  In 11 of his starts, the first two innings were the same... the good news: in nine of those games he yielded zero runs in both the first and second.  That also means two of those games he gave up runs in both innings.  He got better in 9 games, but that's not good news at all, because that means he gave up one or more runs in the first to improve.  In seven games, consistent with my concern, he had a good first inning and a worst second.

Think about that... 11 not-so-good starts, seven more that started well but slipped in the second... 18 out of 27 (67 per cent) where things are not so good or worse two innings into the game.  Not confidence building.  So two-thirds of the time Felix starts you can expect to see runs scored on you before you get out of the second.

...........

Starting to worry. Where is Mallex, when are we going to see him play?  When is J.P. Crawford going to mature into an major league player.  Right now he's just hitting his weight.  Beckham is a big drop off at short after Segura.  I was hoping Crawford would challenge for the position.

Feeling good.  Kyle Seager looks really good, nice comeback.  Hate to say it, but Vogelbach is playing well.  Shed Long?  Oh yeah

............

Bellarmine lost in the consolation round to Kentridge 70 to 60.  That was the third time Kentridge has beaten the Lions this year so they must be better, but oh did B Prep play hard.  Down by a ten-point margin the end of the first quarter, they fought back hard.  Mid-quarter of the third they pulled within three, but Kentridge was just too big and they held them off.  A 22-7 season is really good, especially when three of the losses are to the same team.  Bellarmine should be proud to take away a fifth-place finish from the state 4A championship.

Saturday, March 2, 2019

The numbers don't lie



Given the question I posted yesterday about my sense that Felix starts well, then falls off in the second inning, I was able to find some interesting statistical information.  Turns out I was not only wrong about 2018, I missed a more obvious fact related to Felix' disappointing season.

His problem was, without question, the first inning.  Thanks to the superior work of www.baseball-reference.com, the answer is clear.  Hernandez' earned run average (ERA) in the first inning was 8.16.  He made it out of those 29 starts (in fact her never got pulled earlier than four innings, so we have good data on how he fared through those) and his era was 4.97, 4.71 and 2.33 for the second through fourth.  He made it to the fifth in all but one start, his ERA for that one was 4.50 and for the 18 games he made it to the sixth, it was adios at 11.57.

Turns out my hypothesis is disproved.  He didn't get worse by the second inning because he was so bad in the first.  Although I can't drill down enough to see the deeper pattern.  It's still possible that after the few, if any, good first innings he had, they were the ones where I saw him fall apart.  Believe me, this year I will be watching closely.

Out of curiosity, I looked more closely at his first three inning history.  Why were his first innings so bad?  Here's an answer.  Felix gave up a total of 16 home runs in innings one through three.  Eleven of those bombs (69 per cent) were in the first.  Now why was he so susceptible to the long ball right at the beginning of the game?  How could a guy who gave up 11 dingers in the first only throw one in the third!  Especially because the third likely took him through the top of the line-up a second time?

More answers, more questions.

.......

Note:  Bellarmine Prep lost to Eastlake 76-46.  Yeah, it was a long night for the Lions.  They play their last game of a terrific season today... consolation round against Kentridge for third place.  Kentridge has beaten them twice, so Bellarmine has a score to settle.  Go Lions!

Friday, March 1, 2019

My apolgies in advance.



With no one to stop me I am about to commit the Cardinal sin of fandom: act like I know what I'm talking about.

I'm still fretting over Felix and was not excited with yesterday's outing.  Servais' quote captured it all, "Felix Hernandez, actually he pitched pretty well."  It's the actually part that's telling because I don't think Servais and I have any confidence in Felix's consistency.

Here's what I've seen in his first two starts: an excellent opening inning followed by a really shakey second.  Yesterday he came back with a one-two-three third, but for me getting banged around in thr second was all I needed to see.

I don't have the stats, but I think I can find them.  All last season he did the same thing... a sharp first inning followed by a poor second or third.  It got so I could count on it.  And I was never disappointed in my prediction, but actually, I was.  Watching Felix fail provides no satisfaction.

His pattern of pitching well the first couple of innings, then falling apart is not uncommon.  The usual explanations are that pitchers who fall off from a hot first inning either: came out amped and concentration and focus fell off as the adrenline went back to normal levels, got tired as the game went on or batters figured them out the second or third time they faced.

I think in Hernandez' case it's a variant of the first condition.  He comes out focused on how he needs to pitch, gets results and then... gets careless?  Overconfident?  Less focused?

......

News.  Bellarmine Prep best Central Valley 46-44... there in the final four for the Washington State 4A Women's Basketball Championship.  Play Eastlake tonight.  Here's a link to local press coverage:

https://share.icloud.com/photos/0rV8HnJuE2BFmRbhnoPuwPS3Q#Tacoma_Dome

Leading the Lion's off the bench celebrating yesterday’s win, my grand-daughter, #23, Larkin Daly.