The Felix saga continues

Let's start by acknowledging that it is neither smart nor fair to draw conclusions from a pitcher's first start in Spring Training.  Granted.  However, the wait to see the 2019 version of Felix Hernandez has been one of considerable anticipation and anxiety.  Will he bounce back?  Can he bounce back?

My initial reaction?  It didn't go well.  In fact, watching him pitch on the ROOT broadcast, it looked a lot like last year.  As I noted above, it's too early to draw a conclusion; this is just a reaction.  But it's not a good one.

He does look trimmer, especially through the hips and his first inning looked good.  Mike Blowers said his fastball hit, 90-92.  His breaking ball looked sharp as did his change-up.  He had an Shed Long error behind him, but finished the first inning fine.

He didn't, however,get out of the second.  He was slated to throw 35 pitches, but he ended up with 47, got one out and gave up 4 runs.  It is true, he had some adversity.  An ump called a questionable hit fair down the line, Narvaez gave up a passed ball, a probable inning-ending double-play caromed off of the King's glove.  

All too reminiscent of last season.  He had some problems, then started to look shaky, threw a lot of pitches, seemed to start missing the zone.  He got that bewildered look on his face you see sometimes.  He didn't look sharp anymore.  He didn't look like the pitcher from the inning before.  Next thing you know four runs have scored and he's out of there.  Just not a confidence building start for him or for the fans.

........

Personal note: my grand-daughter Larkin Daly and her team-mates from the Bellarmine Prep Lions are in Spokane just about to tip off in the regional 4A basketball play-offs against Lewis and Clark HS.  She's an off-the-bench guard and a tough defender on an excellent 20-4 team.  Wish them luck.  Whatever happens today they have already qualified for the state championship tournament next week, so they're playing for a better seed.

M's win 8 to 1

Love spring training, but hate the games.  After the first couple of innings it's just a revolving platter of unknown players.  And with so many new ones on this year's team, it is nearly impossible to make sense of who is who.  On top of that, it's hard to draw conclusions from just a couple of at bats with pitchers who are operating under conditions unlike an actual game.

Couple of impressions, nonetheless:

The Mariners won, handily, starting off fast and aggressively like they did in yesterday’s contest.

Pitching held the A's scoreless through the first eight innings.

Nice way for Haniger to start: a homer on his first at bat.

Seager hit the ball hard and even looped one to the opposite field.

Tim Lopes showed something, getting attention going three for three.

Mike Leake is a gem, made of the same stuff as Jamie Moyer.  Consistent, steady, uses the whole plate, thinking the whole time.  Not pretty, but solid, dependable.

So one win in the books, go M's.

The conviction of Dipoto's courage

Awwwwww.  It only lasted an inning and a half, but hearing Mariner's baseball on the radio this afternoon was just what my winter-soul needed.  With a bunch of new players... the first four batters in the line-up all played in other organizations last year... they scored five runs in their two innings.  Marco put them down one-two-three.

For stat-heads, like me, if they can keep that up it figures they would average 22.5 runs a game and goose-egg the other teams.  No?

.......

I'm hoping the rumors that the M's are looking to acquire free agent catcher, Martin Maldonado are wrong.  It sounds like a hedge bet on Dipoto's part.  Having discarded an excellent catcher, but inconsistent hitter, in Mike Zunino, to get so-so defensive backstop but good hitter, Omar Narvarez and then bring in a feeble-hitting good glove like Maldonado sure looks like second-guessing.

I'm disposed to like Dipoto.  I like his upbeat personality and his honesty about his moves, but I'm not  ready to consider him a great GM until he gets the Ms in the play-offs.  And my greatest concern is he may lack the resolve to stick with his decisions.

My misgivings started at the trade deadline last season.  Instead of acquiring or renting players to supplement his two-year strategy of using the core of Gordon, Segura, Cano and Cruz to win it all, nothing happened... Cano got suspended, the team's offense cooled, everyone got tired.  Without the boost of fresh blood, they played mediocre baseball the rest of the season and saw the A's shoot past them for a play-off berth.

Once the team fell out of contention, Dipoto announced a new strategy for this season, a "step back," which quickly turned into a big-time rebuild that discarded the most of core along with pitching aces, Paxton and Diaz.

So now, why would Dipoto try to get back a Zunino when you could have kept him in the first place?  Is the Narvarez experiment to improve his defensive skills not working?  Is this a money thing?  I don't know.  Zunino made $2.95M last year, looks like Narvaez earned $600K.  Maldonado made more than Zunino last year.  If they get Maldonado, the money could just be a push.

I only know a little about baseball, but I know a lot about leadership.  I've spent 50 researching, teaching and training leadership.  Great leaders are decisive.  Flexible for sure, but careful to see their decisions all the way through.  I hope Dipoto has the courage of his convictions, but I worry he starts to second guess himself before committing fully on his strategies.

........

Astronomical note:  It's worth waking a little early the next couple of mornings.  Low on the SE horizon you can watch Jupiter rise, followed about an hour later by Venus and Saturn coming up almost side-by-side.  A good omen for the Mariner's season, I think.

Stiff toes Seager's problem?

I'm trying to avoid making this blog a pass-through to other reporters' good stories, but in my early morning news round-up, I came across one that says a lot about Kyle Seager, the Ms and modern baseball.

It's from one of my favorites, Shannon Drayer of sports.mynorthwest.com and KIRO-710 radio.  She's one of the best.  And she stays close to the team so her stories, like this one, have a kind of compelling, insider's feel.  

She reports today that Seager's broken toe, which presumably contributed to his significantly diminished performance at the plate last year, did not come from a foul tip off his foot.  It was, instead, actually the result of a stiffness in his joints that caused the toe to snap.  Drayer goes on to say that a combination of  hard work "an anti-inflammatory diet, stretching and the correct exercise," and special coaching helped Seager get ready to bounce back this sesson.  

Neither Seager or Drayer says this, but it is reasonable to assume Seager's physical joint tightness has its psychological equivalence in his approach at bat.  Seager has always brought an impressive intensity to the plate and it has become uncomfortably harder to watch him struggle to fight through, with limited success, the extreme defensive shifts thrown up by other teams.  Makes you wonder how much of the "tightness" has been in his head.

This is modern baseball if not at its best, certainly most modern.  The Mariners have shown a willingness to deploy innovative resources, often drawn from professionals outside of baseball, to help their players on and off the field.

I can't wait to see the new, more flexible, Kyle Seager hit.  First game tomorrow! 

Kumbya or kumgoodbye?

9:45 a.m. BREAKING NEWS!  Manny Machado signs with the Padres, 10 years, $300M.  The logjam is over.  Expect a lot of moves in the next few days.

Did the player's worst case scenario materialize?  Kind of.  Dollars and years were not affected, but player's choice of teams was. I'm not sure Machado really wanted to end up with a non-contender.  True San Diego has a lot of youth and are rebuilding, but Manny's going to be watching his former team, the Dodgers, in the next few play-offs.

...........

With everyone in camp, a lot of new faces, the time is right to think about a particularly elusive concept in sports: team culture and chemistry.  Those are just a catchy terms to describe morale, the level of harmony and happiness experienced among people working together.

Although much is made of good morale contributing to high performance, there are no data showing that people are necesarily happier with each other in successful organizations, baseball teams included.  Indeed, a chicken-egg, cause and effect, problem arises when the issue of morale and performance are considered: could be that winning causes happiness, more than happiness produces winning.

In fact, the chemistry logic flies in the face of some dearly held conceptions about stoic professional athletes who are presumed to effectively play through physical pain or emotional hardship.

This issue becomes relevant to the Mariners, because, since arriving as manager three years ago, Scott Servais has made it a priority to create and maintain a positive clubhouse culture.  Everything from a pool table in the locker-room to special team meetings to Joe Maddon-like costumed roadtrips, Servais has nurtured player relations.  So much so, that GM, Jerry Dipoto, is reported to have said last July, when the Ms were 24 games over .500, that this team had "the best environment" he'd ever seen in a major league clubhouse.

Yes, that's the same team that went 33 and 41 for the rest of the season, had a clubhouse brawl between Jean Segura and Dee Gordon and finished 8 games out of the play-offs.  Which fell apart first, the good play or the good feelings?

Whatever.  Servais gets a do-over.  Segura, who was believed to rub team-mates the wrong way is gone and the clubhouse is full of new, young players presumably ready to buy in to another year of SoDo mojo.

Encarnacion?

I must be missing something.  If I followed it correctly, last December 13 the Mariners acquired Edwin Encarnacion, power-hitting DH/infielder from Cleveland.  Two weeks later they let Nelson Cruz slip away as a free agent singing to Minnesota.  Compared side by side, from physique to OPS, from homers to contract status, these are the same guys, except Cruz is three years older and an established well regarded leader by fans and in the clubhouse.  Both are in their mid-to-late thirties, neither is a long-term prospect.

Why did they let Cruz go?  Why from the moment they acquired him have they lured Encarnacion as trade bait?  Why hasn't a trade come off?

The answer to the final question may be linked to the impasse in signing free agents I discussed yesterday.  Until Machado and Harper sign everything else will hold tight.  There could still be a lot of roster tuning as spring training unfolds.

And, if they do trade EE, who fills the considerable power hole left by the loss of Cruz and Encarnacion?  Vogelbach?  He better show he can hit his weight first.

I really don't want to write about this

When I launched this baseball blog, I hoped, unsuccessfully it turns out, that Manny Machado or Bryce Harper would sign contracts before I had to write about the impasse in free agency.  Well, they didn't sign and I can't put off commenting about it any longer.

My reluctance to avoid the topic of the free agent market in baseball stems from three sources: the Mariner's are not in the auction for super players like Harper and Machado, you can't avoid explaining the boring intricacies of the system and, finally, as impactful as these negotiations to sign players may be, they highlight the least pleasant aspects of the least pleasant side of baseball - the Business.

And in the end, whether you are a player, agent or owner, any discussion of free agency unveils the unmistakable, but undeniable truth, that underneath it all, this game we love for its expansive green fields and sultry summer nights is all about... money.  You don't have to be Karl Marx to figure that out.  One glance at your wallet slowly emptying for a $20 "cheap seat," a $12 beer and $8 hot dog teaches even the least economically-interested fan that this game has more to do with money than anything else, including winning.

Of course, where money is involved greed will always be found.  And in the case of free agency, every one of the three involved parties, owners, agents and players alike, can legitimately accuse the other two of greed while, at the same time, neglecting to own up to their own.

Skipping the intricacies, it comes down to this.  Every player wants the largest and longest-term contract they can get... the sooner the better.  Every owner wants to tie up that player for the longest time at the lowest cost.  The agents just care about the size of the contract.

Under the current collective bargaining agreement, signings of free agents have tended to come later and later until, today, the most sought after players are still unsigned with spring training underway.  Whether by intent, coincidence, caution, good practice or collusion, the owners by refusing to budge, have held up signings to the point where players/agents have to cave if they are going to get any contract.

This tactic has worked to the owners' advantage because the teams, either by collusive agreement or common market sense, have created an auction where some teams declare from the start that they are not interested or cannot afford a free agent, leaving a small and less competitive pool of bidders.  Worse, among those not bidding are teams, like the Mariners, who in the process of rebuilding are unlikely to spend their money and deplete their options for a single, high cost superstar.  At its absolute worst, Max Scherzer suggested to Tom Boswell some of those teams starting over this season are actually "tanking."

That is the logjam the game is stuck in right now.  The four biggest ticket free agents, Machado, Harper and pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbel, are left unsigned and, behind them, are dozens of other less stellar, but eminently good to high quality ballplayers.  And with each day, the market value of those players drops as the list of interested and elgible teams declines.

I know, I know.  The catchphrase for many is, who cares when millionaires get in a fight with billionaires?  But there's a lot at stake here, fans included.  Earlier I suggested the issue of free agency makes no difference to the M's, this season at least.  In a rebuilding year they are not bidders in the Harper et. al. sweepstakes, but that's not completely accurate.  There are a lot of less spectacular, but good ballplayers in their own rights, who could fill out a less than complete Mariner's roster (or starting line-up, for that matter).  Adam Jones pique anyone's interest?

There were good reasons why I didn't write about this, none of the things I've discussed speak well to MLB or the people most closely involved with it.

Spring frustrations already?

So we wait for months to see our new centerfielder, Mallex Smith, who the M's acquired from Tampa.  And after inches of press and lots of talk-show time, even a video of him apartment-hunting in his new home town, he has a sore shoulder... won't be able to throw for a couple of weeks.  "We'll kind of slow-play him," manager Scott Servais is quoted as saying.  He'll miss fielding drills.

There are few things more discouraging than spring training injuries.  It's like opening a Christmas present and learning that UPS is late delivering it.  All you get is a picture of that George Foreman grill or your Hickory Farms Hearty Beef gift box.  Way to start the season, with a no-armed centerfielder.  Better warm up Dee Gordon.

......

The whole team has reported, first full work-out today, unless Mallex Smith gets hurt in the locker room.  Just to remind us of how many new players are in camp, Lookout Landing, a good M's blog, (https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/2/15/18226196/sporcle-friday-mariners-40-man-roster) offered a link to a fun quiz at a site called Sporcle.  They give you 4 minutes to match the names of the Mariner's 40 roster players with their pictures.

My score?  5.  It should have been 7.  I do know what Haniger and Healy look like, but their pictures don't resemble them at all.  Still, lots of strange faces.

A sore shoulder.  Already?

Position players report

The gang's all here!  The position players check in today, workouts for the whole team tomorrow. Soon games will be underway.  Baseball is back and eight months of drama, excitement and fun are just ahead.

But some essential, but boring, things first.  I so enjoy using statistics to analyze the world around me that students pinned a nickname on me years ago... Dr. Data.  And it stuck and I liked it, because I enjoy trying to understand reality by representing it in different ways, numbers, images, narratives, metaphors, models.  So it follows I have been intrigued by baseball stats since my first reading of Bill James in the mid-1980s (I was introduced to him by my son, Matt, who was in his teens and used James' stats to clobber me in game after game of Strato-Matic).

Long before my fandom, part of following baseball was keeping track of the stats and at an early age, like all of us, I relied on the time-honored numbers of batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage and ERA.  After James and other pioneering "sabrematricians," the game has been flooded with what are, today, called "analytics."  And Michael Lewis popularized their use with his profile of A's general manager Billy Beane in Moneyball.  So today we have BABIP and PECOTA and WAR and all manner of trying to understand what happens after a pitch is thrown.

The latest trend is the use of devices designed to breakdown physical performance for closer analysis.  Within a couple of years the the video camera and speed gun have been supplemented by instruments, handheld devices, to register and calculate all manner of data on every single pitch or swing.

One of them, RAPSODO, tracks twelve different features of each pitch: things like spin rate and release angle and a lot of other more obscure details.  Similar information is collected for hitting.  I've never pitched so I have no idea how useful or valid any of these data might be, but it's clear some players and coaches pay attention and used to make adjustments to improve performance.  Judging by the sight of them at the M's bullpen sessions, we must be, too.

This practice, I would argue, represents the best application of statistics: to make comparisons over time or between situations (good versus bad) to pitch or hit better in the future.

If you doubt the sensibility or efficacy of that approach look at Kyle Seager.  The use of analytics to shift the position of infielders player by player (and sometimes pitch by pitch) had a crippling effect on Seager.  In fairness he had a broken toe for much of last season, but it was frustrating to watch Kyle hit last year.

Against the radical shifts analytics commanded, he'd either futilely try to pull the ball where there
were no longer openings or weakly attack the opposite field.  In 2016, before he started seeing radical shifting, Seager hit a career high .278 with 30 home runs.  In '17 and '18, respectively, his average fell to .241 and .221.  More telling perhaps, to use one of my favorite stats, BABIP (his batting average in balls in play, balls he actually hit) fell from .295 to .251.

Another way to look at it is to use a stat called WAR (wins above replacement) a rough way of gauging a player's contribution to his team's winning (compared to an average player).  Seager's WAR has fallen from 5.1 in 2016 to 1.6 last year.

These numbers tell is his performance has fallen:  37 fewer hits over a season, roughly one less hit every four games. 10 more players left on base, 21 fewer rbi's, almost 4 less wins. (Thanks to Fangraphs.com for all these great numbers.

What's really scary, is that for all his difficulty in fighting the shift, he pulled the ball more (hit into the shift rather than to center or left) than he had the previous two seasons.

I know some fan don't like breaking the game down like this, it robs baseball of  some of its art and romance.  But in the end, baseball is just balls and strikes and even the smallest things add up.

Pitchers come and gone

Yusei Kikuchi had his first public bullpen work-out yesterday and, judging by the number of videos posted, he got a lot of attention.  And given the publicity surrounding the M's successful bid to bring him from Japan to the US, that makes sense.  There is no question general manager Jerry Dipoto sees Kikuchi as a critically important piece in rebuilding the team, enough so to trade off ace James Paxton.

I had not seen video of Kikuchi pitching and I was surprised by a couple of things (I'm avoiding posting links in the blog, you can easily find these videos and any other thing I cite by simply typing in the player's name to Google).  He has an easy fluid motion that seems to generate a lot of power.  The surprise is that he lifts his leg in a funny kind of double kick.  He raises it, then drops it a little, and raises it again before completing his motion.  Is this legal?  Is this a balk?  Can't wait to see how umps handle this once the games start.  I looked at some of his archival video from Japan, his double clutch wasn't as pronounced, so maybe he just warms up that way.  

Sad to see the retirement of Doug Fister.  I always liked him.  He broke in with the Mariners in ten years ago.  He didn't do much with them in three seasons, going 12 and 30, but he matured and had some decent years with the Tigers and Nationals. He went 4 and 2 in post-season and the press in Detroit wrote a nice tribute to his years of service there (in the shadow of Verlander and Scherzer). 

Fister was tall, 6-8, but he had an easy, coordinated motion and you could see he had a "good head," he was always in the game.  I think it was that concentration, that composure, that caught my attention.  He was traded for a bunch of Tiger junk in mid-2011, another Zduriencik blunder.

Baseball fans go through this their whole lifetime: a players comes up, you like them for the unlikeliest of reasons, they retire.  Sometimes as stars, sometimes as busts.  Usually with a career of up-and-downs with a couple of moments of glory...  he once struck out nine consecutive batters in a row.  You can look it up.

The rotation?

It's a sure bet that the Mariner's pitching rotation at the end of this upcoming season will not look like opening night's.  And between now and March 28's opener there are many, maybe too many, decisions to be made.  

With Paxton gone and no reason to believe Felix is going to turnaround his steep four-year decline, Dipoto is banking on Marco Gonzalez to assume the ace spot. Only 27, Gonzalez has shown some good things and made a full recovery after missing 2016 to Tommy John surgery.  He seems to have both the stuff - a nifty change-up - and the head to improve on last year's 13-9, 4.0.  He tends to be overpowering in the first four or five innings, then to fall off around the sixth.  Tired? Batters figured him out the third time through? Concentration?

Mike Leake and Wade LeBlanc are still around, both better suited to handle the 3 or 4 hole in the rotation.  Unfortunately Felix's proficiency has slipped him to the back of the rotation, too.

Faces on the horizon?  Dipoto made headlines obtaining Japanese leftie Yusei Kikuchi, who they plan to phase in carefully, adjusting him to the rigors of MLB and easing his return from a shoulder injury.  Also in the wings are highly regarded, but untested, off-season acquistions Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson and Justin Dunn.  Roenis Elias is still out there, Kuma, however, returned to Japan.  After that there's a cast of 23 more roster/non-roster pitches to choose from.

Oh yes, and a brand new pitching coach with no major league experience.

February is baseball's month of question-marks and, right now, the M's starting rotation doesn't present many answers.

More than just getting in shape

Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto made his intentions for 2019 as soon as the 2018 season ended.  He initially denied that this was a rebuild of a team that had done better than any since 2003, but his tactical moves clearly indicated a larger strategic goal of winning in a year or two and beyond.

Dipoto traded or released most of what had produced a respectable 89 wins in 2018.  He cut payroll, discarded aging players for younger ones and restocked the farm system.  Of the 41 pitchers and catchers reporting to the spring training complex in Peoria yesterday, less than half had been there the year before.  Gone were Paxton, Diaz and Zunino, all mainstays of the rotation, bullpen and backstop.

The new names and faces are too numerous to list here... on top of that, who knows how many of these new players will make it?  For now, all we can do is what Dipoto, manager Scott Servais and the coaches will do for the next six weeks... watch and see.

In addition to determining which new players make the team (or don't) there are two intriguing story-lines from the pitching mound to follow.  

An obvious one concerns the future of Felix Hernandez. A once and past star, having signed a long-term contract six years ago, Felix' performance has declined significantly each year.  Last season was 8-14 with a ugly 5.55 ERA.  No longer the King.  They tried him in the bullpen, with no gain.  He under-performed his way out of being tradable, so the Ms are going to have to carry him for the last year of the team's most expensive contract. Despite management pleas for Felix to get in better physical shape and start relying on other pitches than his fastball (which seems to have lost its motion) he's been stubborn about being the Felix he's always been.  A story to watch.

Then there is the story of the M's new pitching coach, Paul Davis.  So new to the Ms and to major league baseball, he doesn't even have a picture or bio on the team website. (Ryan Divish does have an excellent profile on Davis in this morning's Seattle Times).  Davis is big on the use of statistical analytics, but has never coached a staff beyond the college or the low minors.  It's hard to imagine the challenge he faces, not just working at the major league level, but building a rotation and bullpen from the ground up.  Could be a tall challenge.

The first day of major league baseball!

Any true baseball fan knows this day as surely as his birthday: PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT!  

Sometime over the last four months, winter set in.  Could have been after the last pitch of the World Series, maybe earlier when your team fell out of contention; no more box-scores in the morning newspaper or steady hum of play-by-play on the radio or exciting replays of great moments seen on ESPN... it all disappeared.  But the real fan knew, all the time, deep down, this day would come and, even in the midst of a major northwest snowstorm, down there in the Arizona sun, the pitchers and catchers of the Seattle Mariners would step out on the field and start to throw the ball around.

I haven't added anything to this blog since 2015, but as the baseball season wound down last year I decided to start posting my musings about the game everyday from the pitchers' arrival through the end of the Series.  So here we go, post #1.

Spring training can take on all kinds of narratives, but there is one common denominator from camps in Florida and Arizona: optimism.  From now until the first pitch of the regular season in late March, every one has a chance of winning the pennant.  Any one.  It could happen.  It is going to happen to some team... it might just be yours.

Reality will set in soon enough, but these weeks, leading up to the start of games that count, are full of possibility.  Every pitcher could win 25 games or save 50.  Any hitter could blast 35 home runs or steal 70 bases.  It could happen.  The possibilities are endless.  This is before a single hanging curve-ball is blasted out of the park or a backdoor slider strikes out the side with the bases loaded.  The dark side of baseball will reveal itself soon enough; for now, anything and everything is possible, however unlikely.

So welcome home everyone, fans and players alike.  Time to set aside the things of winter and get ready for a spring and summer full of 3-2 pitches, long lead-offs, warning track catches, passed balls, line drives that scatter the dugout and 5-4-3 double-plays.

Off to the Pacific

For several years I've had the good fortune to work as a consultant to a number of governments in Micronesia and Polynesia.  After a few of these trips, to pass the time and to stay in touch with family and friends, I began to write a running account of my travels and send out periodic emails documenting where I'd been and what I'd done.

I'm not the star of the show.  These magnificent islands, from Hawaii'i to Palau, Yap, Guam, Saipan, Pohnpei, Majuro and American Samoa are what's fascinating here.  For the first time I'm posting my missives to the public.  Enjoy.

Part 1:

March 5, 2015, 11:01 a.m. PST, I-5N, headed to SeaTac

An omen?  For the last three mornings, very early, around 4 or 4:30 I’ve awakened, looked up from our west-facing bed and gasped at the sight: an absolutely clear sky fully illuminated by a setting Moon tethered with a diamond-sharp point of light from its neighbor, Jupiter, to the right.  Between me and the Moon the waters of Puget Sound shone a long lane of reflected moonlight to the west.  Directly west: a clear path in the direction of where I’m headed to the mid-Pacific to Ponape in Micronesia and Osaka in Japan.  The course laid is out for me, all I need to do is go.

Once again, I’m  on the way to the airport. If you’ve travelled with me before, you know most of my trips start the same way, in Jay Taylor’s comfortable town car headed toward my homeport, SEA..  Our talk is limited, I need to attend to an important detail… getting a hotel room in Honolulu tonight where I crash during my 8-hour layover before heading on to Ponape.   I’m not concerned making a reservation so late, I just need to find a clean, quiet place to sleep that’s near the airport.

There are a few, less than I would have thought.   Lodging on Oahu is oriented toward the tourist and hotels are clustered around the over-populated Waikiki district.  That’s a long expensive cab ride away and my stay is too short to make the trek worth it.   I’ll arrive well after sunset; be out of there before sunrise.  Besides that, except for stretch down by the zoo, near Diamondhead, Waikiki has lost all of its novelty and much of its charm.  It is, a place for and of tourists, still enchantingly beautiful if you can shut out the overcrowding and the looming high rises.

I’m not being a snob, there is a reason Waikiki became so popular, but having been exposed to more remote, less developed parts of Hawaii’i, I prefer those places.  But right now view is irrelevant and location near HNL is what I’m trying to find.  I need a place to stay and sleep between flights. I find only three hotels by the airport, all of them relatively more expensive than those in the tourist area.  Makes sense.  If you are transiting the Pacific, as I am, the demand for the few available airport-proximate rooms is high.  If you factor in the taxi-time and fares, the airport hotels’ convenience wins me over.  Several hours from now I’ll check in at Airport Honolulu Hotel.  I’m hoping its amenities are more impressive than the name.

12:37 p.m.  Gate A8, SeaTac, aboard UA 6371, seat 3B, scheduled destination LAX

My need to fly United to keep adding to my total of miles requires I fly from SEA through either SFO or LAX.  My repeated bad luck of SFO cancellations means I’m willing to add another hour and 500 miles to dogleg to Hawaii’i through LAX.  San Francisco has become a disaster as a connection point, with delays and cancellations common at the slightest inclement weather.  Any condition out of the ordinary leads runways to shut down, reducing the airport, so I’m told, to 40 per cent capacity.  Worse, as incoming flights stack up, arrivals are prioritized in this order: International flights first, transcontinental second, domestic cross country third and domestic local, fourth… dead last for most of my flights destined to fly through SFO.

The extra time through LAX is worth it to reduce the doubt, stress, anxiety and general commotion associated with a getting stuck in SFO.  You know my mantra, flying is all about making adjustments and declaring a personal no-fly zone through SFO is a bold one.  That and last minute decision about a Honolulu hotel demonstrate a admirable, if somewhat foolhardy, ambition to control as much of my destiny as possible.

Feeling empowered, I make a capital decision, too.  Facing hours of time in the air I break a self-imposed 5 year punishment for losing, first,  my expensive, yet valuable, noise-canceling Bose headphones and later, their replacement, a less expensive but pretty good Panasonic earbuds I found in Japan.

Nobody does it better than Bose and I buy a new pair from their booth in the SeaTac A gates.  The easiest sale the kid staffing the booth surely ever made.  I took the the headphones right out of the box and put them on before boarding.  Oh the bliss!  Oh the comfort!  The plane takes off and, lost in the soothing jazz chords of Dave Grusin’s arrangements of Bernstein’s West Side Story score, I sleep until we reach our cruising altitude.  

I cannot, however, lose these puppies.  To play it safe,when not in use, I drape the phones around my neck.  This is not a pretty sight, leaving the impression that I have two large bulbous grey growths emanating from either side of my neck sloping into my shoulders.  The black connector cord slinking down from my neck to my belt doesn’t add much to the picture.  I am, however, willing to relinquish style and appearance to keep my precious headphones safe.

Maybe there’s something to be said for my bold, decisive attitude.

1:41 p.m., enroute LAX

Another bold move.  I’ve taken to sampling the vast array of serialized independent television dramas that have become so popular today.  Past travels  have taken me on satisfying binge-watching trips across the world.  I particularly remember Kathleen and I working through the whole first season of Mad Men first in Europe, through Rome, then onto South Africa and back home again.  Dan Draper is the savannah is quite something to experience.   So I came to know the real American west through Deadwood, followed Heisenberg and Jesse through the stunningly scary Breaking Bad and followed the twists inside the twists of other twists in the very clever spy drama, the Americans.

My most dependable critic to rely upon when searching out a new series is my son, Matthew.   Maybe it’s in the genes, but he unerringly has pointed me in the direction of these and other equally entertaining and well done tele-serials.  Over lunch earlier this week, with much anticipation I asked him, what I should download for this trip.

Much to my disappointment, without hesitation, he nominated Game of Thrones.  I’m eclectic in my tastes, but I just don’t get much out of fantasy-science fiction.  Never read the Hobbit and don’t plan to.  Camelot may be just about as far as I’m likely to travel in any  fictional realm.  But from the Sopranos through House of Cards (just how evil can any husband and wife team be?) and, right now, another Vince Gilligan stroke of genius, Better Call Saul Matt has never steered me wrong.

So with some trepidation I’m stopping here to enter the first episode of the first season of Game of Thrones.  Really?

5:25 p.m., UA 1230, seat 2E taxiing LAX, preparing to take off for HN

Well that was interesting.  Game of Thrones packed a lot into its first 62 minutes.  Quite well done actually.  They were able to brush out some main characters quickly.  I think I’m following.  I’m certainly intrigued enough to try  another episode.  Can’t say that I like it, but given my aversion to fantasy, it’s probably saying a lot to stay in for another episode.

Bought an upgrade with miles, a wise investment at this time of the day.  Smallest aircraft I’ve ever flown to HNL from the mainland, a stretched 737-800.   More signs that United is shifting priorities not always to the benefit or the comfort of the flyer.  I’ll take the upgrade and enjoy it.

Sun is setting as we climb out over Malibu, the hills purple in the background, a pale pink sky for a backdrop.  I grew up here, right along the southern California coast.  In the air, a few thousand feet above it all, the colors and clarity are all familiar.  Down on the ground, however, it’s a different story.  I was in LA last week on business.  This place is packed.  Downtown freeway traffic was notorious 40 years ago.  Today, the traffic is worse.  Trying to get anywhere is a nightmare, indeed, I had to abandon my effort to visit one of my client’s branch offices.  I just could ‘t get there, not in a reasonable amount of time.

It saddens me to see the deterioration of southern Cal.  There was, for most of the 20th Century a dreamlike quality to this place.  In the space of kindergarten through colleges I saw the open space obliterated and the skies poisoned.  The optimist in me hoped solutions would be found, that no more would be lost, maybe some restored.  Not to be.  The golden land I recall looks just as inviting from 10,000-plus feet… any lower and It’s apparent that human habitation has prevailed at the cost of nature.

Time for another episode of Thrones.

10:19 p.m., room 280, Airport Honolulu Hotel

A good start!  Touchdown to tucked in bed in 50 minutes!  Hotel is fine.  Quiet, tidy and clean.  Out on the Nimitz Highway.  From the surroundings I could be in Oakland.  I don’t care.  I need some sleep and I want to make the most out of the ten hours I’m out of the airplane.  

I’ve got to be up in six hours to catch my flight to Pohnpei, so I’ll pick this narrative up early tomorrow morning.

Aloha!  

March 6, 2015, 5:38 a.m., United Club, HNL

Well the hotel turned out to be an excellent choice.  Very quiet, so much so I slept soundly up to the time of my wake-up call, a rarity for me.  I usually toss and turn a couple of hours before my flight.  The tariff here is pricey, a buck 99 a night.  I could have stayed downtown for 50 less, but the saving for the room would have been lost given the cost of a taxi from the airport and back.  So if you’re looking for a no-frills layover in Honolulu, I’ve got it: the functionally named Airport Honolulu Hotel.  Nothing romantic about that matchbook cover, but a more than adequate place to overnight.

Rising to the wake-up got me going a little later than planned.  The free airport shuttle leaves on the half-hour and they tell you to be there 15 minutes before.  No way.  This is Hawaii’i, island time is real.  I figure I can shower and repack the few things I have, making damned sure I don’t leave these new Sony headphones behind, and hop on the minibus with 5 or so minutes to spare.  Good, efficient time management in my book.

I’m out of the room at 4:55, a little tighter than planned.  The hotel is divided across two buildings and, of course, I’m in the one behind the lobby.  No problem until I try to enter the main building and find the door locked.  I have the key somewhere buried in my bag.  I always keep them just in case the rumor I’ve heard is true, that the magnetic strip contains all sorts of private personal information. I’m not sure what I’m protecting myself against.  I’m sure all my info is to be found a multiple hack lists in Russia.  Indeed, we were hacked last year when the Seattle diocese failed to keep the information about it parish volunteers secure.  So I know I have the key. Just where in the many pockets and crannies of my Tumi carry-on is the puzzle I’m struggling with.

The door is in the rear, but on a corner of the building.  It’s 4:59.  I start walking very fast around the side of the building to the front where I hope to find the jitney parked.  Now, dear friends, this is what travel is all about: adjustments, making it work, always to keep heading west.  This is going to be close and I don’t want to sit around the lobby for a half-hour (when I could be sitting around the airport for a half hour… go figure).

I’m energized.  There is just enough physical challenge and reliance on the odds of chance to wake me up.  I boom around the corner and the bus is still there, with enough red and yellow lights to qualify as a Mardi Gras float.  It is, however, 40 yards away and I see what might have been the last passenger to climb aboard.

I really don’t want to yell or run.  Calling attention to myself like that is really not cool.  So I keep my fingers crossed.  It 5:01.  If I see the door close or the brake lights shine I’m calling out.  15 yards.  I’m at the door.  I swing up the ramp and drop in a seat to the surprise of my fellow passengers who embarked conventionally through the lobby 16 minutes ago.  I suppress a smile.  But I know, I won!  Life is sweet!  The door shuts and we shudder our way across the hotel parking lot.

7:14 a.m, UA 154, seat 21C, gate 13, HNL awaiting departure to MAJ

Nice snack while waiting at the gate to depart.  Yesterday I asked my grand daughter, who is a terrific baker at 13, to make me some cookies for the flight.  What a sweetheart she is.  She rose early, made my cookies and, as a surprise, added some frosted cinnamon rolls.  Nothing better than to start your day with a bite of love.

The Strategic Gourmand: The Perfect Margarita

(from my April, 2005 newsletter)

Lime juice, something sweet, something salty and tequila. The best remedy for anything at the end of a hot day. No restaurant any where can beat a well mixed margy at home.

It’s hard to go wrong on this one as long as you follow some basic rules. Top shelf tequila is a must… not Cuevo, we’re talking Herradura or Patron. Even medium grade tequila tastes like and is as toxic as regular gasoline. Stick with the expensive stuff and your margarita will be tasty, refreshing and smooth.

On the rocks with salt on the rim. A frozen margarita is an abomination of nature and an insult to any citizen of Mexico. This is a margarita NOT a slushee from the mini-mart. The salt replenishes what you’ve lost from a hard day of work or play in the sun.

Here is the ultimate recipe, with eternal gratitude to Sanders Thompson who taught this northwestern mossback how to fix a real Texas-style margarita.

1 part top shelf gold tequila

1 part Rose’s lime juice

½ part Triple Sec

Splash (or more) Grand Marnier.

Mix in a pitcher, salt the rim of a glass,

add ice, toss in a slice of lime.

Sanders did teach me that it’s best not to have more than one of these if you have an early appointment the next morning.

To keep the theme strategic, if you’re really adventurous save the Grand Marnier until the end. Pour it on top of the drink in the glass… and more than a splash. Garnish with an orange slice and you have a Cadillac margarita. You may never go back.

Buena suerte!