Back to earth

Spring training, for all its dreamy and visionary speculation, runs straight into brute reality sometimes.  And the Mariner's last two games warn of a future of some frustrating and unsatisfsctory moments.  That the losses came against "real" contending teams like the Dodgers and Cubs may better reveal the M's actual potential than less challenging competitors like the A's, Rangers and Padres.

Friday was a whipping at the hands of Chicago.  Pitching just got clobbered, even with their newly acclaimed opening night starter "ace,"Marco Gonzalez, on the mound.  To be fair, Marco had on off night, not uncommon for even the best pitchers in spring training.  But despite a powerful Mariner response, pitching let them down.  And that remains this team's weakest element, a so-so starting rotation when you get past Gonzalez and an unknown, untested bullpen that will remain unreliable until proven otherwise.

Saturday's contest against Los Angeles showed the alternate worst case scenario for the M's... one that has been characteristic of the last few seasons, sadly reflective of most King Felix's best years: superb pitching with no run support from a potent offense that suddenly turns cold.

These two losing modes need more than new players for its correction.  The M's need consistency.  Both the pitching and offense need to show up every night.  I just can't get excited about future seasons watching Evan White launch bombs only to witness Eric Swanson give up the lead next inning or to see Justus Sheffield strike out the side followed by Braden Bishop grounding into an inning-ending, bases loaded double-play.

I don't know who is responsible for assuring gametime consistency.  Maybe the flaw lies within the manager, Scott Servais.  All I know is all the talent in the world cannot overcome inconsistent play.

Note:  a correction.  The above wasn't fair to the bullpen.  Except for Marco's poor start Friday and two home runs yielded by Swanson to Kiki Hernandez (welcome to the bigs kid!) the next eight pitchers had a line of 11 innings, 4 hits and no runs.  Maybe there's a bullpen there afterall, but those pitchers won't succeed if starters put them in a hole and batters don't score runs.

Beating the clock

Looks like everything else that's been accelerated to accomodate the M's trip to Japan next week, the traditional spring training event of pitchers "hitting the wall" arrived early... at least for Marco Gonzalez.  Last night was just ugly. In three previous starts he'd given up one run and four hits.  In his start against the Cubs Friday night he gave up 9! in 3 and 2/3rds... that's what a dozen hits (yikes!), two walks and some dubious defensive plays will do to you.  Hard to imagine Ichiro losing a flyball in the lights.

Truth be told, Kikuchi didn't look that sharp the night before or LeBlanc and Leake in their last starts.  Reports are Hernandez was so-so in a B-game, but he's been that way all spring.  Up until now the other four starters have looked remarkably well tuned.  So maybe the wall beckons after all.

Marco suggested that moving to night games may have thrown his "clock off."  He gets one more try before they fly to Japan, here's hoping he'll break through the wall by then.  But don't we still face the notorious spring pitching arrival of "dead arms?"

Ichiro continues to struggle.  Along with the fly ball that landed ten yards behind him, he was 0 for 2... a ground-out he would have beat out for a hit a few years ago and another strikeout.  He's batting .100 and since he blooped a hit in his first at bat of spring training, he's gone 1 for 19.  When does it become embarassing?

An injury to Kyle Seager's wrist took him out of lsst night's game.  Tough break for a guy who came to camp with a some impressive new things and an admirable commitment to return to his hitting prowess before other teams began to shift him to death.  Reports are is he is okay, but the injury is a reminder of how thin experienced takent is for this team.  There are a lot of good, young players available, but no one who could come close to replacing Seager at third, especially with his revived bat.

Good to see Jay Bruce homer.  More pressure for roster decisions concerning first base.

Keep 'em coming

As this spring progresses the outlines of Dipoto's reimagined team become clearer.  I think my hypothesis that he went out to get more Mitch Hanigers is proving true.  Along with Jake Fraley the next candidate in my list of Mitch-alikes is Braden Bishop.

I'm a pretty alert baseball fan, at least as far as the AL West is concerned, but prior to this last couple of weeks I'd never heard of Fraley or Bishop, much less imagined I'd be getting excited about watching them hit.

Bishop was raking last night in the M's clobbering of the Reds.  Again, Haniger hitting, line-drives all over the feel, some good power, patience at the plate.  As much as I liked Gamel and Heredia, the prospect of Fraley and Bishop backing up an outfield of Santana, Smith and Haniger looks promising.  That is not a 81-win or lesx team.  Maybe these guys can compete.

Oh, and let's not forget Kyle Lewis who was in right last night.  He's less of a surprise, we've been hearing about Lewis for sometime.  He's healthy, at last, and he looks like these guys with even more power.  Just watch this guy at the plate.  His bat looks like a toothpick in his hands and he is just comfortable up there.  His grace and confidence remind me of Mike Trout.

Keep watching!

Who's on first?

As the spring unfolds it's clear Dipoto and Servais need to sort out the logjam at first which, with the emergence of Domingo Santana, may have gotten more complicated.

At the end of lsst season it looked like firstbase was all for Ryon Healy to take.  Acquired the winter before for a minor leaguer and a good, not great, reliever, Emilio Pagan, Healy's performance last year was less than expected, but promising enough to look forward to this season.

Healy's competition was Daniel Vogelbach, the giant who can play first, but slots in better as a DH.  Vogie has, however, to live up to the promise of his massive Popeye forearms.  But keeping both Healy and Vogelbach was a reasonable decision if both could live up to their promise.

Over the winter, two complications arose with the acquisition of Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce, both proven hitters who could fill a 1B-DH rotation.  Encarnacion was supposed be traded, but that hasn't occurred yet.  Bruce was also possible trade bait and offered another option playing in leftfield.

Complicated enough, then comes along Domingo Santana.  Turns out Domingo can hit, four home runs already this spring.  Not just home runs but mammoth shots worthy of comparison to recently departed "Boomstick" Nellie Cruz.  If Santana can continue to hit like this, no one is platooning with him in left.  To keep Bruce he has to play at first.

To make future decisions even harder, Vogelbach has had a torrid spring and Healy has been slow to warm up. 

True to the blue

The annual set of Mariner's commercials were released today.  My recollection there were usually six, this year only fout.  As usual, clever and amusing.  Kyle Seager's is best by my estimation.  As was his last year.  His deadpan performance is well-suited paired up with Mallex' speed and hyperactivity.

M's pitching not so hot tonight.  Six runs, five charged to LeBlanc, who gave up a homer along with Leyer.  Get ready, there are going to be nights like this all through the season.

Would have preferred to see Mallex in the line-up over the commercial.

Maybe

Jake Fraley's hitting has got to be drawing attention.  The former Modesto Nut acquired as part of the Zunino trade with the Rays went two-for-two today with his second Cactus League home run.  He plays a credible centerfield, too.

He's hitting at formidable .438.  Minor league stats aren't that impressive...looks like he's been hurt a lot.  Rght now he's a lot more impressive than Mallex Smith who came over in the same trade.

Quiet day

No game today, quiet day in camp, more Seahawks news than Mariners.

There was a brief stir yesterday when a rumor lit up Twitter from a Ryan Divish (Seattle Times M's beat reporter) post from a "Braves fan" speculated about a deal for Mitch Haniger.  I don't think so... Dipoto has the team's future linked to Haniger and Gonzalez.

Please excuse my obsessiveness, my obsessiveness, my obsessiveness

I just couldn't put aside my curiosity about a possible trend in Felix Hernandez' pitching performance: to my eyes he often has a stellar first inning followed by a less effective, much so, second.  That pattern is certainly what he has shown in his first spring training starts.  I needed to look at data to confirm what I thought I was seeing.

So, I looked at the first two innings of his 27 starts in 2018.  In 11 of his starts, the first two innings were the same... the good news: in nine of those games he yielded zero runs in both the first and second.  That also means two of those games he gave up runs in both innings.  He got better in 9 games, but that's not good news at all, because that means he gave up one or more runs in the first to improve.  In seven games, consistent with my concern, he had a good first inning and a worst second.

Think about that... 11 not-so-good starts, seven more that started well but slipped in the second... 18 out of 27 (67 per cent) where things are not so good or worse two innings into the game.  Not confidence building.  So two-thirds of the time Felix starts you can expect to see runs scored on you before you get out of the second.

...........

Starting to worry. Where is Mallex, when are we going to see him play?  When is J.P. Crawford going to mature into an major league player.  Right now he's just hitting his weight.  Beckham is a big drop off at short after Segura.  I was hoping Crawford would challenge for the position.

Feeling good.  Kyle Seager looks really good, nice comeback.  Hate to say it, but Vogelbach is playing well.  Shed Long?  Oh yeah

............

Bellarmine lost in the consolation round to Kentridge 70 to 60.  That was the third time Kentridge has beaten the Lions this year so they must be better, but oh did B Prep play hard.  Down by a ten-point margin the end of the first quarter, they fought back hard.  Mid-quarter of the third they pulled within three, but Kentridge was just too big and they held them off.  A 22-7 season is really good, especially when three of the losses are to the same team.  Bellarmine should be proud to take away a fifth-place finish from the state 4A championship.

The numbers don't lie

Given the question I posted yesterday about my sense that Felix starts well, then falls off in the second inning, I was able to find some interesting statistical information.  Turns out I was not only wrong about 2018, I missed a more obvious fact related to Felix' disappointing season.

His problem was, without question, the first inning.  Thanks to the superior work of www.baseball-reference.com, the answer is clear.  Hernandez' earned run average (ERA) in the first inning was 8.16.  He made it out of those 29 starts (in fact her never got pulled earlier than four innings, so we have good data on how he fared through those) and his era was 4.97, 4.71 and 2.33 for the second through fourth.  He made it to the fifth in all but one start, his ERA for that one was 4.50 and for the 18 games he made it to the sixth, it was adios at 11.57.

Turns out my hypothesis is disproved.  He didn't get worse by the second inning because he was so bad in the first.  Although I can't drill down enough to see the deeper pattern.  It's still possible that after the few, if any, good first innings he had, they were the ones where I saw him fall apart.  Believe me, this year I will be watching closely.

Out of curiosity, I looked more closely at his first three inning history.  Why were his first innings so bad?  Here's an answer.  Felix gave up a total of 16 home runs in innings one through three.  Eleven of those bombs (69 per cent) were in the first.  Now why was he so susceptible to the long ball right at the beginning of the game?  How could a guy who gave up 11 dingers in the first only throw one in the third!  Especially because the third likely took him through the top of the line-up a second time?

More answers, more questions.

.......

Note:  Bellarmine Prep lost to Eastlake 76-46.  Yeah, it was a long night for the Lions.  They play their last game of a terrific season today... consolation round against Kentridge for third place.  Kentridge has beaten them twice, so Bellarmine has a score to settle.  Go Lions!

My apolgies in advance.

With no one to stop me I am about to commit the Cardinal sin of fandom: act like I know what I'm talking about.

I'm still fretting over Felix and was not excited with yesterday's outing.  Servais' quote captured it all, "Felix Hernandez, actually he pitched pretty well."  It's the actually part that's telling because I don't think Servais and I have any confidence in Felix's consistency.

Here's what I've seen in his first two starts: an excellent opening inning followed by a really shakey second.  Yesterday he came back with a one-two-three third, but for me getting banged around in thr second was all I needed to see.

I don't have the stats, but I think I can find them.  All last season he did the same thing... a sharp first inning followed by a poor second or third.  It got so I could count on it.  And I was never disappointed in my prediction, but actually, I was.  Watching Felix fail provides no satisfaction.

His pattern of pitching well the first couple of innings, then falling apart is not uncommon.  The usual explanations are that pitchers who fall off from a hot first inning either: came out amped and concentration and focus fell off as the adrenline went back to normal levels, got tired as the game went on or batters figured them out the second or third time they faced.

I think in Hernandez' case it's a variant of the first condition.  He comes out focused on how he needs to pitch, gets results and then... gets careless?  Overconfident?  Less focused?

......

News.  Bellarmine Prep best Central Valley 46-44... there in the final four for the Washington State 4A Women's Basketball Championship.  Play Eastlake tonight.  Here's a link to local press coverage:

https://share.icloud.com/photos/0rV8HnJuE2BFmRbhnoPuwPS3Q#Tacoma_Dome

Leading the Lion's off the bench celebrating yesterday’s win, my grand-daughter, #23, Larkin Daly.

View in the rearview mirror

Got to be true, there was a lot I liked about last year's Mariners.  As much as I am intrigued and excited about all these new players Dipoto has brought to Seattle, I miss some of the old guys.

So I did a quick check-up on some.  Nelson hasn't done much of anything for the Twins... two runs, no at bats, limited playing time, must have walked twice.  Segura?  Tearing the hide off the ball for Philly... hardly a big surprise... batting low .600s.  Zunino one home run for Tampa, looks like a usual slow start for Mike.  Cano hitting well for the Mets.

The two I cared most about haven't played much or shown much.  Ben Gamel 1 for 7 for the Brewers.    Heredia 1 for 5 for Tampa.  Sugar... lots of work, 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA... 11Ks in 10 innings for the Mets.  Paxton has two scoreless innings for the Yankees... oh how I dread seeing him later in the season.  Sure hope Sheffield, Swanson and T-W make up for the loss of Pax.

Bad news on Taylor Motter.  In December he left his Dominican Winter League team to return to US for "facial surgery."  No idea what that is about.  He's not in Spring training with his last team, the Twins.  His last Twitter post has a picture with a new haircut, but no mention where he is or what he's doing.  I'll keep checking.

Shelf life of mortal ballplayers

I've never been an Ichiro fan, but from his arrival in Seattle I've admired his discipline, focus and hard work.  His ability to turn any at bat or any pitch into a basehit is extraordinary.  I saw him get a hit off a pitch that bounced in front of the home plate once.

But as much as we know he resists it, the time all ballplayers dread, may have arrived for Ichiro.  For all his clever and creative technique he has not looked good at all this spring. He's batting .125 (1 for 8) and 0 for 7.  His one hit, a bloop single to right, was worrisome in its own right.  He swung hard, I expected a line drive, but it was a soft humpback.

I wish him success on the trip to Japan.  I also believe it may be the perfect place to bid baseball sayonara.

.....

Note: the Bellarmine Prep Lions defeated Hazen 57-33 in the first round of the Washington State 4A high school Women's Basketball Championship.  They face perennial Spokane powerhouse, Central Valley, tomorrow afternoon.

More springtime dreaming

Improbable end to today's game.  Down 4 to 1 to the Rangers with two out in the bottom ninth, first Jake Fraley, then Chris Mariscal, both non-roster players, jack homers to tie the game.  And there may be a lesson there.

As the game wrapped up I was thinking about what I wanted to write.  I planned to expand on something GM Jerry Dipoto said in a very informative interview with Brock and Salk on their 710-radio morning show.  He told them that his strategy to "reimagine," as opposed to rebuild, the Mariners grew partly out of an exercise he conducted with 16 of his front-office staff towards the end of the season.

He handed out papers numbered 1 through 25 and asked them to fill in the blanks with the names of players they wanted to see on the 2019 roster.  He said 16 of 16 wanted some kind of rebuild and in reviewing those nominations he came to his vision of the team we see on the field today.  Built, he said, on the foundation of Mitch Haniger and Marco Gonzalez.

These first few games have been a challenge to make sense of who all these reimagined players are, but with each at bat I am struck by their resemblence to Haniger's controlled but aggressive batting style and Marco's cool but aggressve way of pitching.  Maybe Dipoto's logic holds up.  I don't know how talented these kids are, but like Mariscal and Fraley (and their model in Haniger) they're not afraid to go for the hit.  Even down by three with one out left.

Game was called after 9 as a tie.

Unwrapping the package

We know how the story is supposed to end.  In October 2020, maybe 2021, we'll watch Yusei Kikuchi step to the mound to start the Mariner's first ever World Series game.  That's how the Kikuchi narrative, which began today with his first start in spring training, is supposed to end... at least in our dreams.  And dreams are what spring training is all about anyway, isn't it?

Nothing happened in Peoria today to, in any way, dash those hopes.  Not yet.  He pitched very well, hit 95, moved the ball around, dealt with a jam, the result of of poor fielding.  He gave up two runs, neither of them earned, and looked like a major league pitcher.  I loved that fastball (slider?) a little up and inside.

A promising preview of things to come.

Along with that good news, it was exciting to see Encarnacion rip a line-drive double off the left field fence, soon followed by a sky-high home run from Domingo Santana.   Even more satisfying was the home run crushed by a healthy (finally!) Kyle Lewis.

More early reactions

Most of the coverage of yesterday's loss to the Padres focused, as I did, on Felix Hernandez' first pitching performance.  Reviews were mildly positive to uneasily inconclusive, not unlike his results in the first and second innings.  Felix' good innings raise hopes that he's coming back; his bad ones quickly dash them.

I had missed something.  He pitched out of a stretch the whole time, abandoning his wind-up.  He told reporters afterwards that this approach "felt good," as though he was going "straight to the plate."  Again, it's too early to conclude anything, especially when a pitcher is using spring training to try out something different.

One play in particular haunts me, so I went to the archives to review it: Narvaez' passed ball.  Later Felix took the blame.  There was a lot of movement on the change-up, but Narvaez's glove was there. He was over the center of the plate and slid his arm to his left, but he just didn't turn the mitt, so the ball struck the bottom of a facedown glove and shot away.  A catchable ball if Narvaez adjusts... sloppy play, a legit passed ball.  These are the kinds of mistakes he makes the coaches are trying to correct, this was a catching error to make one wonder if Narvaez is learning.

......

Bellarmine lost, they couldn't overcome Lewis and Clark's ten three-pointers, but they still qualify for the state 4A tournament, playing Hazen (Renton) Wednesday afternoon in the Tacoma Dome.  Go Lions! Go Larkin!