A real baseball game

The truth of the adage that defense and pitching wins baseball games was driven home in the Ms 4-3 win over the Angels tonight.  And the contrast to the bad pitching and ugly defense of the last few game made really clear.

Mike Leake pitched a beautiful game, just 5 hits and 2 runs over seven innings.  His mix of pitches was superb and, except for back-to-back homers to Trout and Ohtani (no sin in this world, these are the guys who can beat you) he handled the Angels line-up easily.  The M's were aided by some eye-popping d: Murphy throwing out a runner, Haniger’s full body layout catch in right-center and Seager's bare-handed throw off a ninth inning squibber.  And Bass got the save taking care of the last four Angels in an inning and a third.

Been awhile, but this is what real, winning baseball looks like and, by golly, it just makes you feel good to watch it.

Game ball goes to Tom Murphy who caught an excellent contest.  He and Leake work so well together.  And he can hit - a double, a couple of inches short of a homer, followed by an opposite field blast that did go for a home run.  Also, so satisfying to see Jay Bruce hit his 300th career home run, which just happened to make the difference for the win.

Nicely done.

Just keep the drinks coming

Sitting down in Portland waiting for tonight’s game against the Angels to begin.  Still muttering after yesterday's loss to the Rangers.  At one level the Ms showed signs of maybe figuring it out.  On another level, more stupid errors and questionable fielding, unreliable relief pitching, all the pieces in place for a comeback when Seager, who has proven he can hit to the opposite field pulls the ball directly to the first-baseman to crush all manner of hopes with a game-ending, hopes for all sorts of future-ending 3-6-1 doubleplay.

The Rangers are not a good team, if anything their power or nothing line-up and marginal pitching resembles the Mariners, who they have dominated.  They do, however, appear the catch and throw the ball reliably.  Guess that explains it.

The game at hand:  Kikuchi walks first to batters he faces.  Davis comes out to settle him down.  Pujols hits a run-scoring single.  What did Davis tell Yusei?  It didn't work.  Sitting in a bar for dinner, I order another Manhattan.

My biggest worry

The four best coaches/managers I've ever seen, George Allen (look him up), Chuck Knox, Pete Carroll and Lou Pinella all had different ways of playing the game, but they were exactly the same when it came to their passion for winning.  And their visceral hatred of losing. And losers.  There was absolutely no room in the clubhouse, sideline/dugout or field for anyone who wasn't totally committed to winning.  No time to take a blow or sulk or do anything but focus on winning.

That's my biggest concern for these Mariners.  I believe DiPoto is correct in his idea of taking a step back and reimagining this team.  With one warning.

While starting the process of learning to win, take care that you don't teach players and coaches to get accustomed to losing.

Where was Marco last night?  Four innings, 8 runs (two unearned, but still)?  Are DiPoto and Servais on top of this?  Do they realize the damage that's done by letting the team play bad baseball?

I watched Beckham walk away from a strikeout in a critical moment a couple of games ago.  He didn't look at all upset.  Just a neutral look on his face.  Another K.  No surprise there.  Just part of another losing losing game.

Stop it! Wake up.  Now!

I once heard someone say, maybe Wyman, that Chuck Knox would stand and look each player in the eye when they came off the field into the tunnel after losing a game.  All these years later the thought of the look on his face was still terrifying.  Losing is not okay!

I don't mind losing if it motivates getting better.  Mallex is showing me that.  So has Seager.  But if Mitch and Marco are the heart of this reimagined team they better show it in every at bat and every pitch.  And I expect Servais to expect, no, demand that and DiPoto to back him up.

Turned the corner yet?

I don't think this is a team that should be playing .250 baseball.  Of course they are, that after that unrealistic 13 and 2 start they've played 11-30 ball.  But recall my discussion of "regressing to the mean" when they were so hot.   It cuts both ways.  Probability tells us the mean is .500.  My guess is the Ms are somewhere between .250 and .500.  If they don't go out of there way to pitch dumb, they could avoid losing 100 games.

On top of the Vogie monster shot and the Mallex sb-cycle, saw something else new for this season.. 9 hits and 6 walks, lots of baserunners.  Seven singles!

Another interesting analytics piece by Jake Mailhot in Lookout Landing.  I'm not sure I buy his conclusion, but I find his methodology fascinating.  His form of analysis, looking at outcomes pitch by  pitch reinforces what I've always taught about statistics:  it's simply another way, not the only or the best necessarily, to represent reality.  A called strike or a foul ball hit on a pitch outside the zone is an event, just one moment in the nine-inning narrative of this thing called a baseball game.  But it as also a point of data providing a clue as to a batter's approach (intuition?) at the plate.  He has to make a decision.  As swift as it is, it is neither random or unconscious.  It is the result of thousands of these moments and what he has learned.

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/5/28/18642778/mitch-haniger-strikeout-rate-fastball-whiffs

And, at the end of the day?  Another double digit loss.  Was fun while it lasted.

Back home full of surprises

A win!  Two extraordinary highlights.

Basic stuff first, another decent start for Milone, but this time the bullpen held on and got him the win.  Not only do Gearrin, Biddle, Adams and Bass shut the Rangers down, the M's score three runaway runs in the 7th and 8th, highlighted by a mammoth home run from Vogelbach to the third deck of T-mobile.  Not since the home-run hitting contest at the All-Star game have I seen a ball up there.  An impressive blow.

To top that, Mallex Smith walks and steals for the cycle... walks, steals second, steals third, steals home!

Particularly impressive relief from Jesse Biddle.  Who?  Somebody who can hold the other team back?  Nicely done.

One more surprise:  Kyle Seager two opposite field singles.

Deja vu all over and all over and all over again

Well, I've been looking for a pattern and these three straight losses in Oakland may have revealed it.

Fairly okay starting pitching.  Give up two, three or four runs early.  But keep them close.

Mariner hitting low or ineffective.  A run or two, lots of missed opportunities.

Around the 7th offense shows signs of life, enough to raise hopes of comeback.

Relievers come in.  Ineffective, too.  Give up enough runs to put game just out of reach.

Offense gets hot in 8th of 9th, but just not enough.

Rinse, wash, repeat.

Different ballpark, same game

The change of scenary from Texas to Oakland didn't help.  Ms started hitting, but never got in synch... they ended up with 11 left on base after five and only one run.  LeBlanc pitched alright but gave up an early 3-run home run.  Just when the offense looked like they were ready to make a run for it, Gearrin failed to hold them and it was all too little too late.

Again, my pitching logic is tested.  Maybe I'm thinking wrong.  With two runners on base wouldn't a pitcher be particularly cautious about throwing a pitch the batter could drive for a home run?Obviously I'd be looking for an out, but in those circumstances the last thing I'd want is a three-run homer.  If I'm going to give up any runs, less is better than more, right?

Oh, yeah, there was an A's run scored on a throwing error, too.  Again.

A blessed relief

I can't say going a day without a Mariner's game was all that bad.  They have become for me, a fan, unpleasant to watch, and as a blogger, painful to recount.  Not having a game yesterday was just what I needed.  And listening to comments on talk radio, I wasn't the only one.

Back at it tonight.

I did find a couple of interesting things to read:

Here's a good update on "lost" Mariners by Matt Roberson of Lookout Landing:

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/5/23/18636731/checking-in-on-the-seattle-mariners-exes-trades-former-mariner-dipoto-2018-19-offseason-cano-diaz

This piece by John Trupin, also from Lookout Landing, is heavy on analytics, but raises some interesting points to flesh out out thinking, and concerns, about Mariner pitching:

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/5/21/18634009/the-mariners-need-to-abandon-their-fastballs

Trying to keep calm

The ten-run losses are devastating, humiliating, but the one run low-scoring defeats like yesterday's 2-1 to the Rangers, just suck the life out of you.  Especially when one of the two-runs is unearned, the result lf an error that extended the inning one more batter.  He doubles, a run scores.

If I feel this bad I can only imagine what goes through starter's mind.  All pumped up, ready to face a tough line-up of hitters.  Hit the first batter... uh oh.  Bam bam, a slick double play from a new infield!  A grounder to first, EE has it.  Running to cover firstbase... good break,  getting out of the first inning.  Wait! Throw out of reach.  Can't get it.  Oh shit!  Inning still going.  Gotta get pumped up again.  Oh no.  Batter is Mazzara... killing us this series.  Get him to a 1-2 count.  Almost out lf this.  Crack!  Line drive to right, off the wall.  Run scores.  Down 1-0 already.  Gotta stop this now.  Forsyth.  First pitch, fly to center.  Hold my breath.  Whew, Mallex catches it and holds on.  Done, c'mon, guys get a run back.

And, ultimately the Ms did get a run.  But so did Texas.  And because of the error that fronted them a run, the Mariners, with little offense, lost themselves another game.

Here's hoping all this bad baseball in 2019 means great baseball in 2021.

Maybe ok

All the way back in spring training I questioned the wisdom of replacing Mike Zunino with Omar Narvaez.  I was never concerned about his hitting, which has turned out to be better than expected and nearly as powerful  (if not as jaw-dropping) as Mike Z's.  It was Omar's defensive skills that troubled me.

To be fair, he seems to be an okay catcher.  Admittedly my skepticism has caused me to look carefully at every passed ball and missed tag at the plate, but in fairness he looks alright... not great, but pretty standard.  His progress in framing pitches has gotten better.  What I can't determine is how much, if any, of the blame for bad pitch selection can be passed on to him, the pitchers or Paul Davis. The homers on grooved two-strike fastballs are someone's fault... seems like the catcher would be a good place to examine.

What I hadn't counted on was his determination and success as a clutch hitter.  I love to watch this guy at the plate.  He is impressively composed and focused, whatever the count or situation.  He's a wily hitter who works the count snd hits the ball.. hard.

But for an inch or two he could have won last night's game against the Rangers.  He hit a home run and missed another by no more than two inches.  The rest of the M's bats except for EE remained silent, but Omar kept the team in there.

I'm starting to like this guy.

Just another one run loss

Well, not exactly.  The Ms dropped their road-trip opener to the Rangers 10-9, but in a fashion amply demonstrating the team's few strengths and many weaknesses.

Mike Leake, uncharacteristically, gave up five runs in the first, maybe watching the Twins beat up the other starters this way left him with the impression the game is best played with his team down by bunches of runs early.  He yielded another two in the fourth, it was just not his night and the Mariners looked to sink out of sight until after five, the bats woke up.

Of course as their late rally started, with two runs and more hot hitting from the usual suspects, Encarnacion, Santana, Healy and Beckham, two new relievers Garton and Markel gave up three to put them further back.  But Seattle never quits and a Beckham grand slam and another Vogie bomb brought them to one run, but too short, to catch Texas.

Who lost this game?  Pitching, again.  But who really lost it?  Leake?  He pitched well this season... every starter is allowed a bad one now and again.  Servais?  Maybe he should have pulled Leake earlier, but a bad starter for this team may still be better than an even worse reliever... as Garton and Markel proved a couple of innings later.

This was Garton's fault.  He sets us up with an 11 pitch one-two-three sixth and comes back in the 7th, same guy, different pitcher, and immediately gives up a double and home run.  Markel comes in, works the count to 3 and 1 and gives up a homer to the first batter he facex.

Dipoto's ability to find good power hitters is more than matched by his failure to find good relievers.  That's a fair summary of this season.  Maybe Jerry, who was a pitcher himself learned to identify guys who were dangerous at the plate, but never came to recognize what it takes to get them out.  I give DiPoto the loss on this one.

Thank Yu, sei

Give Yusei the ball again and again, please.  He knows how to stop the bleeding.  Another solid start from a pitcher who appears to think about what he is doing.   I saw him quoted after yesterday's 7-4 win over the dominating Twins.  He said he could see they were a fastball hitting team, so he threw his heater "just a little bit faster."  And it worked, along with mixing in an excellent slider and curve.

In other news, one of the "Zaks," Swar, is gone.  Six home runs in 8+ innings will get you traded to the Braves who must be even more desperate than the Ms for relievers.  He started well, looking terrific in his first six relief appearances, then started dishing up home runs like fries with Big Macs.  Farwell, Swar.

Off to play the Rangers on the road.  Be nice to get a couple of wins.

The bottom yet?

In their 18 to 4 loss to the Twins last night, the M'a used six pitchers.  All but one gave up runs.  The one successful hurler was Tom Murphy, the catcher, thrown into mop-up duty at the end of the game.  Some of his success may have come from the fact that Minnesota was exhausted from being on base 26 times in the course of nearly four hours after banging out 19 hits, six of them home runs, walking six times and reaching base once, of course, on one error.  

What may be even more astounding is that over 34,000 people sat and watched this, although I'm sure most left early.  Even I turned this stinker off after six.  If this is what DiPoto had in mind for a "step back," maybe he didn't take a look to see there was nothing behind them but a sheer drop.

I take no satisfaction in the fact my post yesterday described accurately what we were to see later that night.  To be honest, the pitching has gotten so egregiously bad that reaching my prediction suggests no forecasting talent on my part.  Five-plus run innings have become the new norm for this team.

My curiosity only grows as to what Davis, the pitching coach, and Narvaez, the catcher, are saying to these guys on the mound.  Maybe something like, "just throw it up there, let your fielders do the work."  Ooops. Not such a good idea with these gloves behind them.  Better to advise them to keep their bags packed, they're soon headed back to T-town when Tom Murphy takes their jobs.

What happens in the fourth inning?

Marco seemed to be pitching fine in his start against the Twins last night until he hit the fourth inning.  Then he seemed to begin throwing batting practice.  The first four batters hit safely.  Back to back to back to back hits aren't that rare, but not common either, especially in a pitcher as skilled as Gonzalez.

It seems like I've seen this a lot lately, innings where the Ms pitchers give up bunches of hits.  Everything is going fine, then in that one inning, the opponent gets three or four hits, some consecutive, they score multiple runs and the game is over.

I'm not imaging this.  By inning, here's what teams are scoring, on average, in each inning:

.50-.79-.89-.60-.51-.38-.79-.74-.40

The third is the worst, but the fourth isn't great and look at the late-inning bullpen work.  Yuck! 

What's happening?  Here are a couple of hypotheses.  Familiarity?  Having gone through the line-up once batters pick up something that they exploit the second time through.  Predictability?  The Ms pitchers become over-reliant on a pitch or pattern and give it away to the batter.  Fatigue?  Three innings in Ms pitchers start to lose something on their pitches.  Stealing signs?  Telegraphing pitches.  Rhythm?  The other team just catches fire.

I'm not a big believer in coincidence, not in sports at least.  When I see something happen repeatedly I get curious about what's causing this.  Big inning failures are caused by something.  If I were Servais and pitching coach Davis I figure out what's going on and stop it.

Just stop for a second

In working with organizations over years I've discovered when things start to go wrong, frantic efforts to make things better only make problems worse.  The situation is like that of a little kid in a bathtub... once the water gets sloshing back and forth, more activity only makes it worse until the agitated liquid splashes over the side to flood the floor.

So it is with this season's Mariners.  Last night was another big-inning, high scoring drubbing.  We've learned this is a streaky team and these lop-sided defeats seem to start a few more days of thrashing.  Some of that is due to a bullpen that gets ground up in these thrashings, but I think it has more to do with the psychology of losing, especially when errors and mental lapses are involved.

Best thing to do... and tonight is the time to try it... is take a deep breath, shake off the loss and play simple, straightforward, basic baseball.  Don't press.  Don't get frantic.  Slow down.  Keep the water in the tub.  Let it settle.  Get back on track and start winning again.