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Sunday, October 6, 2019

Batting wrap up



Getting a finger on Mariner hitting is 2019 because they really put up three general offenses.  In the early season the team was all about veteran power.  Then the trades came and they started shedding those older power hitters like Encarnacion and Bruce, relying on new power from Vogelbach.  By the end of season the line up was almost totally new faces.  Add to that injury distorted everything: Seager missed most of the first half of the year, then Haniger missed over half of the backend and, except for the first quarter, Ryon Healy was gone.  Both Gordon and Santana pulled IR stretches, too.
I'm not sure I ever saw a line-up that looked anything like what's hoped gor in 2020.

What we did see was streakiness.  A string of games marked by explosive power, followed by another bunch where they were shut out if not totally shut down.  They were no-hit twice and just missed a season-record breaking third.  The first part of the year they did break records for the most home runs to start the season.  Patterns for sure, but a week of slugfests would be followed by a week of low scoring contests.  Over and over.

So, I'm not sure what the M's have for hitting. Depends on the week I guess.  But here's a closer look at batters starting kind of, in order Servais set on through September.

Lead off:  Shed Long.  Seems to be getting stronger as he works through each challenge.  GOT ood contact line drive hitter, even has some power.  I just don't know about leading off... OBP of .333 not all that impressive, but if Mallex is batting ninth, maybe that's the real top of the line-up as you work through the game.  He's aggressive and confident.  Works for me.

In the two-hole: J.P. Crawford.  He needs to get that BA above .226.  He is impressive with his composure at the plate... just an amazing level of concentration.  Again line drives all over, some power.  A project, but he has a lot of potential.

In third spot right now, Austin Nola, but I expect when he comes back from his injury I expect qnd want to see Mitch Haniger here.  Before he got hurt Haniger, another line-drive hitter with power this time, was having an off season with a low average and lots of strike outs.  He's not a .220 hitter.  I think he was pressing.  Dipoto put a lot on his shoulders when he tapped Mitch (and Marco) as the models for the future.  That's a lot to take on, especially when he's asked to do what Cano and Nelly did in seasons past.  I think he tried to do too much and that affected his patience at the plate.  Average dropped 65 points, OBP 52.  I expect his future to look more like 2018 than '19.

Kyle Seager ended batting at clean-up, a no-brainer given the August he had.  His extra-hot bat cooled some in September, but he's still legit in the fout-hole.  The shift means nothing on fly balls. And he seems to be adjusting to the shift.  He missed the first part of the season after an promising spring, restarted cold, exploded, then shifted into normal. He's always been streaky good. Can he be the heart of the line-up?  We'll see.  His contract makes trading him unlikely, his glove is still golden. Let's hope he can be the guy.

If he isn't, Domingo Santana or Daniel Vogelbach seem most disposed to bat fourth, probably as designated hitters.  If not as clean-up hitters either is likely to bat fifth or sixth.  Santana has legit power and drove in so many runs during the first half of the season, he was, for awhile number two in the league in ribbies, then he cooled off and got injured.  Vogie hit mammoth homers up to his selection to the All-Star squad, then he went stone cold for two months.  These guys feel like a lot of unsolved problems.

More likely at fifth is catcher Omar Narvaez or, much to everyone's surprise his back-up, Tom Murphy, or to even more people's surprise, his back-up, minor league vet, Austin Nola.  All three can hit and they all have some power, Nola turned out to be a versatile sub at first-base.  I think he finally got above the radar, albeit late in his career, and could be a handy plug-in tool next year.

Then, except for Dee Gordon, who I am sure will be traded before spring training, there are a bunch of prospects who have shown hope, but not enough long enough to raise hopes a lot.  Interestingly, each did things here and there, but for now Kyle Lewis, despite his dramatic start with six homers in eight games, Brandon Brennan, Tim Lopes, Jake Fraley, Donny Walton and Kevon Broxton all kind of look like the same guy.

Two who don't?  Mallex Smith.  Batting first or ninth, he gets on base and runs well... when he is thinking.  And super-sub Dylan Moore.

I find it hard to conclude much about the Mariners hitting: inconsistent, streaky, some power when it's there, no runs when it isn't.  Vulnerable to front line pitching.

This team needs maturity born of experience and lots of ABs.  I look for next season to be a lot like this one just concluded but with progress and, in cases like Vogelbach, Santana and Healy, some resolution.

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