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Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Turned the corner yet?



I don't think this is a team that should be playing .250 baseball.  Of course they are, that after that unrealistic 13 and 2 start they've played 11-30 ball.  But recall my discussion of "regressing to the mean" when they were so hot.   It cuts both ways.  Probability tells us the mean is .500.  My guess is the Ms are somewhere between .250 and .500.  If they don't go out of there way to pitch dumb, they could avoid losing 100 games.

On top of the Vogie monster shot and the Mallex sb-cycle, saw something else new for this season.. 9 hits and 6 walks, lots of baserunners.  Seven singles!

Another interesting analytics piece by Jake Mailhot in Lookout Landing.  I'm not sure I buy his conclusion, but I find his methodology fascinating.  His form of analysis, looking at outcomes pitch by  pitch reinforces what I've always taught about statistics:  it's simply another way, not the only or the best necessarily, to represent reality.  A called strike or a foul ball hit on a pitch outside the zone is an event, just one moment in the nine-inning narrative of this thing called a baseball game.  But it as also a point of data providing a clue as to a batter's approach (intuition?) at the plate.  He has to make a decision.  As swift as it is, it is neither random or unconscious.  It is the result of thousands of these moments and what he has learned.

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/5/28/18642778/mitch-haniger-strikeout-rate-fastball-whiffs

And, at the end of the day?  Another double digit loss.  Was fun while it lasted.

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