The numbers don't lie

Given the question I posted yesterday about my sense that Felix starts well, then falls off in the second inning, I was able to find some interesting statistical information.  Turns out I was not only wrong about 2018, I missed a more obvious fact related to Felix' disappointing season.

His problem was, without question, the first inning.  Thanks to the superior work of www.baseball-reference.com, the answer is clear.  Hernandez' earned run average (ERA) in the first inning was 8.16.  He made it out of those 29 starts (in fact her never got pulled earlier than four innings, so we have good data on how he fared through those) and his era was 4.97, 4.71 and 2.33 for the second through fourth.  He made it to the fifth in all but one start, his ERA for that one was 4.50 and for the 18 games he made it to the sixth, it was adios at 11.57.

Turns out my hypothesis is disproved.  He didn't get worse by the second inning because he was so bad in the first.  Although I can't drill down enough to see the deeper pattern.  It's still possible that after the few, if any, good first innings he had, they were the ones where I saw him fall apart.  Believe me, this year I will be watching closely.

Out of curiosity, I looked more closely at his first three inning history.  Why were his first innings so bad?  Here's an answer.  Felix gave up a total of 16 home runs in innings one through three.  Eleven of those bombs (69 per cent) were in the first.  Now why was he so susceptible to the long ball right at the beginning of the game?  How could a guy who gave up 11 dingers in the first only throw one in the third!  Especially because the third likely took him through the top of the line-up a second time?

More answers, more questions.

.......

Note:  Bellarmine Prep lost to Eastlake 76-46.  Yeah, it was a long night for the Lions.  They play their last game of a terrific season today... consolation round against Kentridge for third place.  Kentridge has beaten them twice, so Bellarmine has a score to settle.  Go Lions!